Man, my iPhone has been ringing off the hook all morning. Now I know people don't listen to the conference calls! Let me sum it up for you: New products coming. This will of course require changes at the factories, etc.
Tuesday, July 31, 2007
Today Steve released the news that the iTunes Store just crossed the three billion mark in tune downloads. They crossed two billion in January, and 2.5 billion at the end of April. Forrester, is that a hockey stick or are you n00bs just happy to see me?
Monday, July 30, 2007
"We believe investors should focus on Apple being in the process of creating another version of the 'multiplier effect,' which we call 'Halo 2,'" Reitzes said. "We believe the build up to the launch of the iPhone and its ongoing excitement is driving sales of accessories, boosting retail traffic, and helping drive sales of iPods and especially Macs."
Sunday, July 29, 2007
It all started on July 20th when this obscure blogger dude decides to attach himself firmly to my coattails. No one, and I mean no one has heard of this guy, so he decides to stir things up by questioning the way we release our research at PJ.
Saturday, July 28, 2007
New iMac rumblings are getting awfully loud.
Friday, July 27, 2007
The Dow drops over 3 hundo and aapl hits an all time high.
Thursday, July 26, 2007
Shawn called me yesterday and asked if I would come on the Your Mac Life Show. He said he was having Pete Cohen on and he wanted me to come on afterwards and "hit it out of the park."
For those of you phoning in your upgrades, you can have my $205, I'm going to $211.
So I'm looking over our channel checks, and I figure Apple is really close to already having sold iPhone number one million. Really really close. Steve must have been ticked that it wasn't in the can for yesterday.
Wednesday, July 25, 2007
OK, here's how I rate these ratings....
|Source||Date||Rating||Target Price||My Rating|
|Soleil Securities Group||7/16/07||Buy||$175||Coaster|
|Am. Tech. Research||7/2/07||Buy||$165||Phoner|
|RBC Capital Markets||7/24/07||Outperform||$160||Phoner|
|JMP Securities||7/23/07||Mkt Outperform||$125||n00b|
|WR Hambrecht + Co||5/30/07||Buy||$125||n00b|
|Bernstein Research||5/21/07||Market Perform||$100||Ultra n00b|
Yep. That's what happened today. Papa Peter's guidance was so absurd we're officially not paying attention to it. A bunch of us were texting each other during the CC and agreed. Basically we're insulted.
Not too happy with the way Tim and Peter treated me during the call either. Basically gave me squat. Who took a stand for you dudes last week? Where's the love?
Steve may be the king of Apple, but four times a year someone gets to be King for a Day.
As far as Wall Street is concerned, Papa Peter is the man this afternoon. He is the master of UPOD (under promise, over deliver), and we analysts are used to his shtick. The question on everyone's mind is how close he'll be to our collective guidance for next quarter. Just a little advice Peter... don't go under it. Make life easier for all of us.
Well anyway Peter, get your crown ready, today's your day. I'm getting my questions prepared this morning, and they're gonna have the usual mix of "praise and probe" as I like to say.
Check me out on the CC everyone!
"Our next question comes from Gene Munster at Piper Jaffray....."
Tuesday, July 24, 2007
Had to eat a little crow this morning. And not because I was wrong about the weekend sales. AT&T had a huge bottleneck in their activations. Took them DAYS to get it sorted out. But you can't claim what you didn't activate, so their number flat out sucks for close of business on the 30th.
Now of course I have to go on cnbc and explain this crap. Easier to say AT&T's news was disappointing than get into the specifics. Pete will give the real number tomorrow... well, sort of. He's not going to give the entire weekend... just the 29th and 30th.
But enough about me. If some of you investors out there were looking for a chance to add, you may have just gotten it.
Monday, July 23, 2007
Downgrade to hold from buy based on valuation
We believe Apple's fundamentals remain strong on market-share gains in desktops and laptops, success with digital-media players and software, and notable inroads in the smartphone category. Based largely on these successes, we believe Apple should trade at a greater premium to the p-e-to-growth rate of the S&P 500 Technology Sector, and we are raising our 12-month target price to $155 from $135. However, we think our downgrade is warranted by risk-reward considerations, especially with expectations high and Apple scheduled to report June-quarter results on Wednesday.
Scott, you should run for office....
I'm the master of low expectations.
-George W. Bush
So Netflix is getting slammed today because they've lowered rates and we've pointed out that current estimates are high.
Sunday, July 22, 2007
“While we continue to like Apple’s long-term growth opportunity, we see little more than market returns in the shares from current levels,” he writes. “We would be buyers on a pull back to around $90 and believe that summer seasonality, less favorable component pricing and lack of news during the next several months may provide such an opportunity.”
Gardner actually raised his price target on the stock today to $110, from $105.
But hey what do I know, right?
Ant & Sons submits: Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster has stuck his neck out quite a few times when it comes to making predictions on Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL). He made a big call in 2004 and was the first on the Street to say that Apple could move to $100 per share on strong iPod sales. And now he's doing it again.
That's not manipulation brother, that's doing my job. I see where Steve is going with things, and then I actually share the good news. Seen my job title? Senior Research Analyst.
Let the big dog eat.
Saturday, July 21, 2007
So last night I'm getting emails about Cramer saying "sell aapl." I don't watch Cramer but Judy from my office records it so I gave her a call. She said that Cramer advised "taking a little off the table" before earnings on the 25th. Well, that's not a sell it's just trading around a core position, says Judy. OK, so why all the fuss?
Friday, July 20, 2007
Well friends, I hope you're pleased with today's little bombshell. I gave the n00b analysts every opportunity to upgrade after the iPhone launch, but enough is enough. So game on kiddies, I'm on record as the first guy over two hundo (I put the extra five bucks on there just for that purpose). The rest will wait until after earnings, but I don't need a CC to know where Apple is headed.
Thursday, July 19, 2007
Have you guys been paying attention to the way Apple is trickling out the iPhones? This whole thing is just masterful. Just enough phones to meet demand. And it's all because of Tim Cook. That guy is the shizzle.
If you've been paying attention, you notice how I'm dropping more hints as we move into earnings. Today I talked about the revenue sharing with AT&T. Actually I believe the deal is slightly sweeter than the $3/$11, but you get the idea. This is free money for Apple and this is the story that everyone else is missing big time.
Monday, July 16, 2007
Looks like Shannon Cross (Soleil) has raised to $175. I've met Shannon a few times. I sure would like to play Texas Hold 'Em with some of my analyst peers. I think I could take 'em.
Sunday, July 15, 2007
How much did Apple earn for the quarter? One George Washington. You read it here. Not what I'll say "in public" of course.
Thursday, July 12, 2007
This is how it's done.
Few things have had as profound an impact on my life as the nuns at the University of St. Thomas. Remember the Penguin from the Blues Brothers? She wouldn't have lasted two days with these sisters. No joke, I've still got the scars. Here's a shot from my sophomore year:
Wednesday, July 11, 2007
I mean, since you're right there and all. Run it by Shope before you put out a report of course. ;-)
Apple Is Working On A Business iPhone
Wed, 07/11/2007 - 19:49 — FSY
According to Taiwanese sources, Apple is working on a new iPhones for business executives and wireless audio systems that will allow music to be played directly from an iPod.
The same Taiwanese sources, claim that Apple is working on three new versions of the Apple iPhone, one version will be for non US markets and will include several new features not found in the current model on sale in the US.
According to the source, iPhone new features will incorporate software which will incorporate new business features developed by both Apple and Google. Among the features will be a suite of applications that deliver fast email, messaging and direction information, it will also incorporate GPS service.
Vivan just sent me the link to my "impromptu" interview on iDay with Shawn King from Your Mac Life. Analyst n00bs, get your iPhones out and take notes on how I do this (right down to the no-tee-shirt and gel in the hair).
Just got off the phone with Oppenheimer. We have a cute little understanding whereby if I'm right on something he coughs into the phone, but sometimes when I get him going he can't stop, especially if the news is huge.
Was thinking that maybe Shope and Chang concocted all this hoopla just to get some attention. Then I found out they had a photo shoot for some upcoming JP Morgan ads. Pretty much confirmed my suspicions.
Tuesday, July 10, 2007
Well it's pretty clear that Bill Shope read my blog this morning and promptly starting running damage control over at JP Morgan.
The other aapl analysts are chumps, pure and simple. If their clients are paying attention to the targets and selling when they hit, they have left sooooo much bread on the table. Check it out:
My "buddy" Kevin Chang at JP Morgan got everyone in a tizzy by claiming Steve is going to turn the iPod nano into a low-cost iPhone.
“We believe that iPod Nano will be converted into a phone because it’s probably the only way for Apple to launch a lower end phone without severely cannibalizing iPod Nano,” he said noting that the new phone could have “rather limited functionality.”
Monday, July 9, 2007
Hackers are pounding their chests because they can turn the iPhone into a 6G iPod. Guess they can't wait until the fall when Apple releases iPods with OS X for less than the iPhone.
Sunday, July 8, 2007
And who nailed it? Me. Came out nice and smooth before launch and said 200,000 iPhones when of course I knew it was gonna be five hundo. Learned that from Steve... under promise, over deliver. That's how I roll at Piper.
the product is doing "tremendously well" thus far.
Wow bro way to go out on a limb. He also said he thought Apple had sold 500k so far, which is of course because he heard me say it first. What a n00b. Then his buddy Chowdry says:
The analyst also said he surveyed users of Research In Motion's BlackBerry who have purchased iPhones and some said they would switch to just using the iPhone if it supported their companies' business e-mail platforms.
"That's directionally very positive for Apple,"
Directionally very positive? What the hell does that mean? Typical n00bspeak. Yeah Trip, of course it's going to be positive for Apple if people switch to iPhone. Duh.
Had to go on cnbc explain why iPhone is going to be a "game changer" (they love when I say that). I talk nice and slow so Joe can understand me. Something else the n00b analysts don't know how to do.
Well, that's it for now. Aapl is going higher this week of course. I assume you saw those shorts get whacked on Thursday. Yeah more of that comin' without a doubt.