Well, there ya go

Sure enough, Tim was right. September 5th friends, mark those calendars.

Moscone center. After that you will hear the sounds of Zunes being dropped. It won't be pretty.

Now hear this: FLASH is the name of the game.

So I call Tim

"Hey Tim, seems like Amazon is out out of iPods. They're connecting people with CompUSA. What's up?"

silence

"You guys got something coming soon?"

silence

"I'll tell you what. If there's a new iPod coming soon, just don't say anything."

silence

"OK, cool. Later"

Poser still at it

Unreal. Reitzes gets on cnbc this morning with the cover of talking about HP, but almost immediately starts talking about Apple with Mark.

And no tie.... lame. Contacts were a good choice though. But trying to look different does not cover the fact that you're still a poser.

Sorry dude, I see right through it. You're trying to steal my catch phrases and my turf and it's not going to work. Munster Nation is strong and loyal.

Sure Enough, Herb is Trying to Change Careers

What did I tell you? Herb is looking to join the ranks of the full time cable personalities. He's on CNBC all week with Sue. The guy looks about as comfortable as a Paris Hilton in an orange jumpsuit.

Sorry Herb, better keep looking. I hear some of the brokers are looking for cold callers.

And the ties.... don't get me started on the ties.

Get Your Waders On

About once a year aapl goes through a sell off. It can be set off by a variety of things, but once it starts you see an increasing number of negative articles in the press as it descends. The last phase is a big influx of fud. Looks like that's coming.

So get your waders on aapl investors, and don't let the currents knock you over.

The New iMovie

Being the movie-making buff that I am, it's easy to see what Apple is doing with the new iMovie. Bickering seems to reign supreme right now with the Apple Faithful as to what Steve is trying to do here. Now at least Munster Nation will be clear on the matter.

We are living in YouTube world these days. Steve knows that being able to process video quickly and easily is the future, especially higher quality videos which are sorely lacking on YouTube. It shouldn't take hours to get your five minute video ready and pushed to YouTube, but currently that is the case.

And no one is using the web to post family videos, even though the web is a much better distribution system than the DVD. Why? It's a hassle. How many tapes do we have sitting around? Alot. Sort of like the shoe boxes of photos we used to have that never made it into photo albums. And we're not even making DVD much anymore. How many DVDs have you made in the last year?

iPhoto solved our problems for still images. Super easy to use, especially the new version. Easy to push your photos to the web, or to order prints or books. No shoe boxes. And you can step up to Aperture if you want to go hard core.

Today we have shoe boxes and shelves full of little camcorder tapes. The old iMovie was pretty easy to use if you were adept at using computers, but it's not a no-brainer by any stretch. And Steve wants things to be a no-brainer. Enter the new iMovie. Finally dealing with video is as easy as dealing with photos. Now it's clear that Apple has set up the same progression in video as they set up for photos. Step up to Final Cut Express or Final Cut Pro from iMovie if you want to go Hollywood. But for making YouTube movies or stuff to share with family, nothing is going to beat the new iMovie.

So to the whiners out there: Keep using iMovie 6 or step up to Final Cut Express. iMovie is for the rest of us.

Well I Did It

Bought the new 24" iMac. Wasn't even a fair fight. Practically had the plastic out of my pocket the second I walked back into the mall.

Got it home and went through the standard Apple Unboxing Ceremony. Captured the whole thing to video so I can use the new iMovie and put the whole thing up to iWeb for my friends to see.

Problem is, the iMac still stares me down and calls to me. I was sort of hoping that would stop when I bought it, but no. The thing is like a male Golden Retriever for god's sake. It sits pretty quietly when I'm in the same room with it (as long as I glance at it now and then), but if go anywhere else it starts calling to me.

Geeeeene. Geeeeeeeeene let's make a movie or sumthin. Geeeeeene.

So Vivian was surprised to see me walking into work with it this morning. What? I said. It's not that heavy.

n00b of the Week: Richard Windsor

"We have a duty to research scientifically the intrinsic nature of all securities."

This is a founding principle of the Nomura Group. It is seemingly something Richard Windsor ignored when he connected the wrong dots and proclaimed that there may be screen design flaws that could crop up in 3-6 months for the iPhone. 

Only time will tell, he says. The classic "I'm not saying.... I'm just saying."

Many have been quick to point out his errors regarding the iPhone's screen technology, but it looks like the damage has been done. The fear-inducing thought is being repeated around the blogosphere.

Richard, you are a n00b of the most careless sort. I hope your bosses take their founding principles seriously. Only time will tell, of course. 

Oh, and your ties are hideous.

New iMacs are Spooky

You know those portraits on the wall where it looks like the person's eyes are following you as you walk by? That's the feeling I got from the new iMacs when I went to the Apple Store yesterday for a channel check. Those suckers bear down on you. It's spooky.

At one point I could swear one of them was calling to me. 

Geeeeeene. Over here Gene.

If you approach one you are overwhelmed by an iGottaHaveThis feeling. I don't know what Steve put into those things but it's insane and I'm going to have to change my sales model now. I barely made it out of the store. 

I think I'm gonna go back today.

Hal is in charge

What do you get when you can short downticks, hedge funds are scrambling to raise cash because of their poor decisions, and people have entrusted computer models to do their work for them?

You get today's market.

Daisy, Daisy......

Feeling Wu-zy

I like Shaw. He's got a good handle on Apple products and Steve's general direction. He's got a ways to go on running the numbers, and his ties suck, but still he's not a n00b.

Keep at it Shaw. Munster Nation is considering Most-Favored-Analyst status for you.

Steve's RDF Never Ceases to Amaze

I just finished listening to Shawn's latest YourMacLifeShow, where he interviews Daniel Lyons from Forbes. Lyons has done an amazing job of covering up Steve's blogging. I think he's pretty much got everyone convinced. Now Steve can continue to say exactly what he thinks and everyone believes it's this Lyons guy. Amazing. Even got the Times involved in the whole scheme.

Sometimes I wish I had my own Reality Distortion Field. I've tried it a few times at the office, but Paul and Judy just look at me like I'm an idiot. Guess that's an IDF? Dunno. Anyway, I don't really need any cover for my blogging. Munster Nation knows me. I've got no reason to hide.

Herb, it's Over

Herb got himself on cnbc this morning. He's been pounding the table this week with this incredibly big news: Apple is selling more iPods than ever, but the growth was greater years before when they went from a few people owning them to a lot more people owning them.

Brilliant. Funny how growth and sales work like that.

I thought maybe there was a hidden message there, so I ran his interview through Google Translator, and I got this:

"No one is paying attention to me, so maybe if I say something about Apple I can get some face time."

Ah, OK I get it now. Herb listen I think you need to visit monster.com, and soon.

DVDs are the Next 8 Track

Listen carefully to Steve during the event yesterday:

• iMovie produces movies for direct publishing to the web at higher resolution than DVD
• Push your movies directly to YouTube, Apple TV, iPhone, iPod
• "No more sending DVDs to friends and grandma"

He spent all of about thirty seconds on iDVD because "There are still some people who want to make DVDs." Sure sounds like Apple considers DVD to be on its last legs.

and....

"We'll have some news for the Apple TV soon."

Vivian says I'm nuts, but seriously, when was the last time you made a DVD? I'm a film making buff, and even I find myself doing it less and less.

QuickTime may be the killer app after all.

The Cord is Cut

Some exciting news from today's shindig, although not-so-glam, may take a day or so for the press to pick up on: iWork.

Numbers finally makes iWork a complete replacement for Microsoft Office. People who want to be "Microsoft Free" ... which is pretty much everyone ... can do it and still remain compatible with the less fortunate. The cord has finally been completely cut.

Additionally, the new iMac is beautiful. Students never looked so hot going back to school.

Oh, and one more thing: YouTube exporting from iMovie. The kiddies are going to be all over that.

Munster Maroon

Here you go cnbc boys, this is a tie. I call the shade Munster Maroon. Picked it up yesterday when after I saw Joe and Mark trying to wear pink. Darren Rovell is trying to pull of fuschia with white polka dots today. Wrong.

I was "on message" again, talking nice and slow which you must do for the cnbc peeps. They showed video of the old sunflower iMac while I was talking... clueless I swear.

3.5% worldwide mac market share by the end of 2008. Plus the iPhones, the iPods, the Apple TVs, and the iTunes Cash Cow... that's a lot of dough friends.

I'm pretty sure Becky wants me.

Did Ya See Me?

Blue and white striped tie. Very classy if I do say so myself. The guys on cnbc are wearing pink ties lately. Those guys are worse than bottom feeding shorts... always late to the game. Pink is out dudes.

Anyway,  had to get everyone focused on Apple's meat and potatoes before the show tomorrow. The new iMac is going to be seriously cool. Not a Game Changer^© mind you. And did you catch this in my client notes?

"A 13-inch MacBook Pro model featuring an ultra-portable, lightweight enclosure is also a possibility"

Everyone clear? Alrighty Steve, the Street is ready for you now.

Out for a little tie shopping.

I'll be honest... it hurts

I'm sure some of you in Munster Nation have last names that are convenient targets for jokes. Those of you from the Butts, Sweat, or McCracken clans are just a few that can relate.

You can imagine how cruel school kids can be when you grow up during one of America's most popular TV shows. I don't think I went through a single week of school without being called Herman. At first I sort of liked it because I really did enjoy the show. Of course eventually it got to me.

I figured when I left for college at St. Thomas that the joke would fade. Well that began the phase whereby people call you a name and think they are the first to come up with it. "Hey Herman Munster!" Yeah, brilliant dude. How did you think of that?

I thought for sure when I entered the professional world that the joke was over, but no, bloggers still think they are coming up with such a unique twist on my name. Amazing.

The truth of the matter is, all along I've secretly wished to be compared to my real hero, the guy that shares the same first name as me. Now Munster Nation knows my secret. I trust you'll guard it carefully.

Interesting

There have been several videos on YouTube dating back to December on using the wii remote with the mac. But I find this one to be the most intriguing.

Musings

As some of you have mentioned, we're taking a good long look at the iTunes Store. Serious economies of scale issues here, but we need to scope out how much infrastructure they have needed to add recently, if any. Starting to look like a very serious cash cow.

Looks like Steve is taking some time off from blogging. That's cool, probably getting ready for Tuesday's show.

Additional iPhone model in '07? No.

iPod refresh in fall? Yes.

Gotta work on my China documentary. Later.

Well it's Friday

While most analyst n00bs are heading to the course today, Team Munster is already assembled in the office this morning. We're collating our latest channel check data and brainstorming about Steve's little coffee clutch on Tuesday. 

Judy thinks Steve will give a business update which will include the announcement of one million iPhones sold. I'm not so sure about that, but Judy's got good instincts. Sure looks close.

By the way, did any of you buy the corn that was on sale this week? Congratulations if you did.

Well, back to work. Vivian's talking about "Apple Care attach rates" and I think she might be onto something here.

Here's Why Wireless Stores Dislike the iPhone

Verizon, Sprint, T Mobile, heck even AT&T brick and mortar wireless shops dislike the iPhone. Why?

Simple.

If you can buy a cellphone then take it home to (immediately) activate it, why do you need a wireless store?

You don't.

One (huge) side story to the iPhone is the removal of the middle-man in the activation process. There is no question this will become the standard way to activate phones, and it's going to happen very quickly now. Watch and see.

Days are numbered for the brick and mortar wireless stores, and the employees know it. Order your phone online, or buy it at a Best Buy, a Target or a Walmart. Activate at home.

That's why wireless stores dislike the iPhone.

The New Gene-ism Starts to Take Hold

B of A is new on the aapl scene, and I'm pleased to see Scott Craig grab onto my latest catch phrase:

Craig says the focus on near-term iPhone sales has deflected attention to the company’s “game-changing business model,” in which it is spreading out iPhone revenue over two years using subscription accounting.

Well done Scott. Everything about the iPhone is a Game Changer.^© I officially absolve you of "newbie" status. You might want to raise that $160 target soon though.

Don't Count Out Steve's "Hobby" for Tuesday

Faithful readers of the blog predicted that a new iMac would be the next product released by Apple. Well, now we know that Tuesday is the day.

I wanted to point out that, while Tuesday is a "Mac only" event, with "no iPhone or iPod announcements," there was no mention of Steve's hobby, the Apple TV. Why not say "no iPhone, iPod, or Apple TV announcements?"

Well technically, it is a mac you know.

Gardner is a Chump

Sorry but that's the truth. The guy throws the Buy on after sell offs. He gets paid to tell people to initiate a position after irrational selling. Duh, yeah if you've been out of aapl, sure that would be a good time to move in.

Another well-crafted rumor play hits yesterday, so he removes the Hold rating. So now aapl is a Buy, but still sell it at $160. Right, sell it just like the $110 target you had on it until last week. His last Buy was in the low 80s after a 15% sell off.

So, in at $82, out at $110, in at $130, out at $160. Uh, OK. My people don't leave that kind of cash on the table, they add to their positions during nonsense like yesterday.