Enderle tries to get us to change our mind

Enderle has made a last minute attempt to get our n00b deluxe award. Sorry Rob, it was a good try but we're sticking with your mentor Dvorak. But I'll have at look at your article just for grins.

I'm having my doubts about Apple though, as it would seem success is going to their head as they put Think Secret out of business, and I and a lot of others were tricked into believing they personally threaten the guy who writes the Fake Steve Jobs parody

No Rob, you "and a lot of others" were not tricked. You're just stupid.

To make a point, Dan Lyons joked about how Apple's power might be going too far (and yes I fell for the joke).

Yes, you keep mentioning, so I will as well. You're a dunce.

If you search "Lyons and Apple" in Google news, you'll see he got a lot of us thinking about this subject, and perhaps we should.

Someone tell Enderle that "and" is ignored in a Google search. Oh well, I'll follow his lead. A search of "Enderle and stupid" gives over 31,000 results. Here Rob, this is for you:

The "AND" operator is unnecessary -- we include all search terms by default

In addition, as Apple goes into the battle with CES, arguably one of its biggest, it still has to put to bed the Options problem that implicates Steve Jobs himself in an alleged crime. This would seem very ill-advised. In any case, this isn't a good start for it in 2008, but recall 2007 looked like it would be difficult for Apple as well, and it powered through that.

Did he really just do that? Wolverton would be so proud!

I'll be at the show and participating in the 11th annual Build Your Own PC race, and I was practicing last week with my new AMD Spider system. Who knows, I may get lucky.

Dear God. This explains a lot. I'm not kidding about this one.

HTC created the fastest and most credible competitor to the iPhone last year, but it was rushed and I'd expect a much better offering for the second generation.

Enderle loves to play the "second generation" card to show authority. He called for the second generation iPhone to show up in October of 2007. Dolt.

By the end of 2008 I'll bet these folks will have moved one way or the other.

Brilliant. Absolutely brilliant.

and possibly a full refresh of the iMac (long overdue).

Yeah. That aluminum and glass deal from August was nothing.

I think the product of the year should set a good example both inside and outside a firm. Sync does so, and it is my product of the year.

There it is folks, Enderle's pick for product of the year. Well Rob, you probably won't have a lot of competition for that pick. It's all yours pal.

n00b deluxe for 2007

As we close each year, Team Munster likes to review its research and choose one person to be n00b deluxe for the year. A n00b above all other n00bs. There were plenty to choose from in 2007, as you know if you hold aapl.

Now, it might just be because I'm the boss, but the team agreed with me that Johnny Dvorak should win for writing Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone: Company risks its reputation in competitive business.


Here's a quote:

What Apple risks here is its reputation as a hot company that can do no wrong. If it's smart it will call the iPhone a "reference design" and pass it to some suckers to build with someone else's marketing budget. Then it can wash its hands of any marketplace failures.

It should do that immediately before it's too late. Samsung Electronics Ltd. might be a candidate. Otherwise I'd advise you to cover your eyes. You're not going to like what you'll see.

So congratulations John, you are Team Munster's n00b deluxe for 2007. Your advice is right up there with Michael Dell's, and for that we salute you.

Letterman writes his own solution

and takes the initiative in modeling the new paradigm for his industry.

Of course I've been mentioning it lately, as Munster Nation is well aware.

Blockbuster Busted

Of course I've been mentioning it plenty. See the latest reason here.

Walmart just caved. Netflix is next.

The winner already has the hardware in consumer's hands.

Stay iTuned.

OxyMoron

Viv came bounding into the office.

"Gene, got a sec?"

"Sure Viv, what's up?"

"You see Enderle's blogging yesterday?"

"Enderle's got a blog?"

"Yeah Gene. Apparently Apple is rotting from the inside out. Says people want Steve out. It confirms our retail check at the Apple store!" Viv grins like the Cheshire cat.

"That's nuts. Enderle's pretty thick, but. . . . hey, maybe it's a fake blog."

"Fake? You mean like Fake Steve? Like he's doing a genre crossover?"

"Yeah, like that."

"Hmm. Gene, why would he jump from creative nonfiction to fake blogging? It's too close, like just half a step. No, Gene, I think it's him. I mean the title of the blog is real official and everything. "

"What's it called?"

"Rob Enderle: The Real Truth About Technology and IT"

"Oh my God. Yeah, that's him alright. Never thought you could squeeze an oxymoron into a blog title."

Apple goes after Coach

So when Coach sat down last year to map our their 2007 holiday strategy, do you think they saw Apple as a competitor? Probably not. But such is the power of the iPod.

"Spending on luxury items is up 10.8 percent, “which isn’t bad at all,” Mr. McNamara said. Purchases of electronics rose a healthy 5.8 percent."

So now even the fashion industry has to figure out how to compete with Apple. And I gotta admit, I have no idea how they can do it. Who's next, the oil companies? I don't think anyone is beyond Apple's reach at this point.

Oz Symbolism for the New Gilded Age

Dorothy -- Middle class
Wicked Witch of the East -- Eastern Bankers and Wall Street
House that falls on Wicked Witch of East after the tornado (which represents the homeowners revolt) -- Subprime mortgages, CDOs, SIVs
Munchkins -- the underclass and child labor (the Lollipop Guild)
Wicked Witch of the West and her flying monkeys -- Corruption in the lending industry
Tin Man -- Manufacturing economy
Scarecrow -- Agricultural economy
Cowardly lion -- Ben Bernanke, who eventually finds courage to act
Emerald City -- Washington DC
The Wizard -- Name your favorite politician
Silver Slippers (in the book they weren't ruby) -- Monetary policy
Toto -- Apple's new ultralight laptop (digital communication), a small bundle that's able to save the day

In the end the wizard can't help Dorothy. Civilization is saved by the magic of the silver slippers, and the help of her friends -- the tin man, scarecrow, lion, and Toto.

Subprime hasn't Eighty-Sixed Wall Street Bonuses

Goldman manages to eke out a $68 million bonus for the CEO. Others are mixed, but are averaging a 14% increase over last year.

Happy holidays.

Piper Jaffray is Serious About Global Warming

You all think I'm just kidding around about this stuff, but seriously, we have an environmental investments section. See Lois Quam, Piper Jaffray Director (that's her in the photo talking to Will Steger about glacial retreat in Norway).

The Strong Get Stronger

Erin called me this morning, wanted me to make an appearance. No problem, I'm always ready to go (note the rockin' tie, btw).

Apple, Google... the strong get stronger.

2008 is the year of the digital consumer.... and that means Apple.

Man, I'm getting good at this stuff.

Back to work.

Big Surprise (NOT): Frustrated Android Developers

As I predicted over a month ago, Android is being developed using Panic Mode Development Methodology (PMDM), AKA a "contest". Oh, and I also mentioned (and Jobs told Schmidt), that the Seattle software development boys and girls, hoping to find respite from Vista troubleshooting, would jump on the Android wagon. Yep. See a Macbeth tragedy here.

Combo Ultra Light/Wood Chipper Coming From Apple

I didn't mention it in my press release today, but yeah, it's gonna turn Kindle into Kindling.

How do I know this? Here at Piper we put our hands on many new consumer electronic products.

So Vivian ran back from receiving today with the Amazon Kindle. She was panting, and so excited her hands were shaking, but she managed to rip off the packaging.

Soon as she had a book loaded, she flicked her finger down the screen to page down. She tried the pinch maneuver to make the font size bigger. "It doesn't work!" she cried as she passed the machine to Andrew.

And wouldn't you know, Andrew tried the same procedure to move to the next page -- touching the screen, he dragged his finger downward. "She's right, this thing is defective," he lamented.

Yes Munster Nation, multitouch is ubiquitous and intuitive, as a great user interface should be. And it's has been marketed so well it has become the defacto standard!

At MacWorld we'll see the real goods.

Z(ucker) is zuckered again: Dave Letterman takes a page from the Jobs playbook and negotiates independently with WGA

The Writer's Guild is learning how to cut out the network power brokers.

Letterman can end run the networks because he owns his show. "The CBS host is in a better position to make an individual deal with the WGA than late-night hosts Jay Leno, Conan O'Brien and Jimmy Kimmel, whose programs are owned by their networks."

Anyway, ya' think there's anyone else the WGA could iNegotiate with, like somebody with lots of experience in the entertainment biz -- from places like iPixar and iDisney and the largest online music and movie distribution outlet perhaps?

The iParadigm shifts. Stay iTuned.

Team Munster Retail Checks

Last night Viv and I worked the action up at the Rosedale Apple store. Viv remembered her clicker but I forgot mine, so I used my finger counting (thanks to Sister Edna I have that valuable skill) as shoppers meandered through the 25 foot zone surrounding the store entrance.

Rosedale is a small store, about 2,000 square feet. People were entering the store at the rate of 260 per hour, consistent with our previous checks. Nearly 25 percent of mall goers who entered the "zone" were sucked into the store. Many were women, but there was still the occasional male veering toward the entrance only to be pulled away by the woman at his side. Viv calls those "mixed marriages". There were 50-60 shoppers inside the store at all times throughout our check period.

Viv went in to purchase an iPod. She saw a Macbook Pro, 3 iPods, and assorted software and accessories sold during the five minutes she stood in the checkout line.
But Apple needs to do something about the stroller problem -- not enough room to push a stroller into that store. Several times a baby pusher would stop outside the entrance and look wistfully into the store. At times these "stroller handicapped" shoppers blocked the entrance (tandem strollers were the worst -- when did they start making them to compete with Hummers on size?), making it difficult for other shoppers to enter or exit.

But overall, it's looking great for earnings.

London-by-the-Sea the result of ice melt

Attention London Financial Centre:

Previously you had until 2099 to move your assets to Minneapolis.

Now it appears you have until 2012: "This week, after reviewing his own new data, NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: 'At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.'"

And check out this recent report.

Ring me mates. I'm here to assist.

Team Munster. Easing you onto higher ground.

Resistance is futile: Cayman Islands will be destroyed by Artic ice melt

Attention Offshore Hedge Fund Management and their Wealthy Clients:

Previously you had until 2099 to move your assets to Minneapolis.

Now it appears you have until 2012: "This week, after reviewing his own new data, NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: 'At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.'"

And our channel checks indicate that the next ice report will go further over the top, so to speak.

Trust me, this will be worse than the hurricane risks.

Remember, you have three short years before catastrophe, so give me a call and we'll get the ball rolling.

Team Munster. We can ease your move to higher ground.

Blockbuster, what was that?

I think it was the sound of MovieBeam crashing and burning. Hey but don't worry, I'm sure it will be different for you guys.

So good luck with that Movielink albatross. Hey Keyes, what movie was it that you showed that AP reporter on your phone when you were bragging on Movielink? Oh that's right.... Crash!

More Z curse stuff

Remember this?

"We know that Apple has destroyed the music business - in terms of pricing -- and if we don't take control, they'll do the same thing on the video side," Zucker maintained.

Hey Jeff, how's that "take control" thing working for ya?

NBC refunds advertisers as ratings plunge

Apple Shuts Down CompUSA

Buh-freakin-bye-bye to CompUSA, and it's all Apple's fault. How so? 

Think about it.

A big box store for PCs from Dell competitors. How much of a shift away from PCs would it take to have an impact? Nada mucho, amigo.

Hey ask Motorola if you don't think lil' ol' Apple has an impact on companies that run on razr-thin margins. And like I said.... watch out Blockbuster.... your day of reckoning is coming too.

One way to increase your blog traffic

Steve is upping his traffic by flame baiting. Poor schmuck. Probably ticked that I'm siphoning off his fan base. After all, my advice is useful and profitable.

Team Munster is above Dvorakian dirty tricks. If you don't know what I'm talking about see this youtube video. Dvorak isn't smart enough to understand the flame baiter boomerang effect: The targeted population catches on and starts using the tactic themselves.

Yes, Minnesota has conceal and carry too. But here in Munster country we're smart enough to not provoke the gun lobby. We build our reputation the old-fashioned way: we earn it.

Elmer, Elmer, Elmer

"Does Rupert Murdoch’s Times know something we don’t? Is Apple PR paving the way for Steve Jobs’ succession?

No, no, no and no. If you read the Times story closely you will see that it is what journalists call a write-around — a profile written without the cooperation of the main subject or his handlers."

Yup... it's total crap, and Philip Elmer-Dewitt wanted to play Captain Obvious on it and get some eyeballs. So he titles his article:

"Will Jonathan Ive replace Apple’s Steve Jobs?"

Pretty provocative title, doncha think? Now why would he do that?

"With nothing new to say and no access to Ive, 

why run the story at all?"

My thoughts exactly.

Now What?

Viv's convinced that the PC guy is trying to nudge her out of her two-book contract. And she wants to know what kind of hack editor names a series "Now What?"
I told her I agreed -- Zuned: Another Scary Microsoft Hardware Blunder and Googled: A Tale of gPhones and gLust at the gSpot exude class.

But in any case I'm glad it's the weekend.

What can I say?

When the corn goes on sale, you buy the corn.

No need to thank me, it's why I'm here. But I must apologize to Shawn: Looks like I'm missing the over-200 close by a couple of weeks.

Upgrade soon? Yeah, watch for me on CNBC.

Scott Moritz

n00b extraordinaire. 

That is all.

Jimmy G takes the bait

From Paul:

Dear Gene,

For the last few days I've been communicating with Jim Goldman. I'll admit I've been a little bored, so I created a gmail address that I could use to see if he would nibble. Boy did he ever.

So anyway... that "story" of his today... well that's all me. I'm the "source with good connections." But as you can see Gene I didn't give him anything that Munster Nation didn't already know. No harm done.

So if we ever need him in the future... well he'll pretty much repeat whatever I tell him to. Hope you don't mind boss.

Paul

Neff shows me some respect

Bear Stearns raised their target today (from $243 to $249), carefully keeping it below my $250. The analyst club carefully bows to my superiority. Anyway, he's finally getting the story on accelerating Mac sales.

Did you notice that today's BS note was "team authored" (Neff, Hand, Chung). You know, that's smart. You have to give the underlings credit somewhere when the raises and bonuses at Bear Stearns are gonna be sub prime. It's too bad that team doesn't blog... I like 'em.

Kindle to become kindling

Paul sent me an update today:

Dear Gene,

Not much news out here lately, except for a little scoop on the ultra light. One of the things it's going to do really well is the whole "e book" thing. The guys out here are laughing their asses off about the Kindle. You can imagine what Apple's multi-touch is going to look like for e books... flipping pages, accelerometer, resolution independence and all that. Oh yeah... and color, duh.

So they're calling Bezo's thing Kindling out here... bonfires to commence after Macworld.

Gotta run boss. Dinner with Woz.

We need to raise Ben Stein's retainer fee

Seriously. Nice job on the Goldman Sachs smack down Ben. Dodd's a heavy hitter.

Ben, I'm looking forward to those Swedish cookies at the potluck. Vivian says she's making her classic Stir Fry Tater Tot Hot Dish -- big hit at last year's party. You're gonna love it.

Shaw, I'm not gonna lie: you disappoint me

(Note: Originally posted in October, but since Shaw has seemingly taken my words to heart I thought I'd repost.)

Though he's been trying to get better, every now and then Shaw Wu comes up with something that makes you say.... HUH?

So here's the latest:

But for December, the Street’s view is too high at $8.6 billion and $1.38; Wu thinks it’s more like $8.1 billion and $1.25. “For the December quarter, we believe AAPL will most likely continue its tradition of conservative guidance to help reign in unrealistic expectations,” writes Wu.

Shaw, are you the only one still playing the cat and mouse game with Papa Peter? The rest of us are going it alone. Find me the last time Apple didn't beat the Street after issuing the lowballed guidance.

So you think Apple's gonna say $1.25...big deal. The point is, what do you think they're really going to make? 

Hint: It's going to be higher than the $1.38 Shaw. So how is $1.38 "unrealistic?" You following this?

And dude...$185? C'mon.

Gonna have to consider re-issuing n00b status on you pal. You're slipping.

I'm winning Ben Stein's money

He's signed on to efforts to make Minneapolis the financial hub of the universe. Ben was an easy convert -- turns out he's been reading my stuff for years and making money on AAPL. So anyway, now he's paying the Piper, so to speak, and his ties rate. So we're happy to have him on board.

Thanks Ben. Oh yeah, we've got you down to bring a dessert tray for the office holiday potluck.

Photo Caption Contest

Mirror mirror on the wall......

(post your entry in the comments)

P.S. Sorry about the Starbucks straw, I shoulda cropped that out

Fadell is winning

Dear Gene:

This afternoon I was hanging out at the bar when in walks a group of guys from Apple including Tony Fadell. Some of the guys were slapping him on the back and congratulating him. One of the fellas saw me and shouted "hey Mayor Paul join us for a drink!"

Well boss, to make a long story short, seems that one of the things that the Apple guys do for fun is submit ridiculous patents, and then see who can get the most rumor mileage out of it. I guess Tony is currently in the lead with this gem:

One of the guys asked me what I thought it was and I said "I dunno a pocket frisbee?" Nope. Turns out it's an adapter for a mini CD that will allow it to go into a normal slot loading drive. "Well, who the hell uses little CDs?" I asked. "And wouldn't the cost of making that little thing pretty much negate any cost savings anyway?"

"Oooh!" said Fadell. "But what if you made the adapter itself break down into smaller pieces!"

"Uh, it would still be easier and cheaper to go with regular discs?" I said.

"Exactly! Doesn't make a lick of sense does it? But hey I submitted that patent over a year ago, and it's still got legs! It's a couple pieces of plastic for god's sake! Too damn funny. Hey not to mention no one will be using opticals in a few years anyway. That was my little ironic twist you see."

"Oh, well congratulations. That's quite a clever hoax" I said.

"Thanks Paul. Now hey get me caught up on how you opened a can-o-whoopass on Wolverton."

Googling Redefined

So Vivian limped through her latest writer's block episode and continues work on her Business-Erotica book, now renamed Googled: A Tale of gPhones and gLust at the gSpot .

New intel from Paul sparked Viv's latest theory about why they'd be using a contest to lure outside Android developers. He says the rumor runs that their software developers lack focus --- are prone to indiscriminately googling each other -- so anyway, it was too risky to have a critical, groundbreaking system like Android developed inhouse. Not only does this behavior create a revolving door, but heck, one strategically placed STD and the enemy could take out the entire place for months, maybe years.

On the bright side, Paul gripes that Apple runs a Sunday school outfit.

That's all good news for Munster Nation. My $250 target is sustainable.