PJ Vlog-o-the-day

This is how we know what we know. Teens are ditching the clothes and saving up for iPods and iPhones. Thanks Jeff. Nice tie (thought the jacket fit is not-so-hot).

The Berenstains prepare their twinkie defense..

to include in their next blackbook report to clients.

In last week's installment, the Bernstein Bears raised their target on Apple stock to a whopping $175.

Upon hearing the news Uncle Bear sold his shares.

Anyway, to make a long story short, Mama Bear is furious about the 'paw in the honey jar' rumors, and when last seen she was de-installing the candy and pop machines at the community tree house.

Stay tuned.

Nokia Strikes Out, Motorola On Deck

Look here. 

While Nokia was fretting over missing out on the foldout "clamshell" design back in 2005 (Motorola beat them to it) Apple engineers were already busy designing the Triple Lindy of smart phones.

Nokia and Motorola were looking only for fast balls, and they missed the slow curve. Zander better start cranking out a LOT more digital set top boxes to the cable industry, cause otherwise that nineteen dollars a share is looking mighty rich to this Senior Analyst.

Hellooooo Moto?

Fake Vlogging?

Paul is on my case about vlogging. Blogging is so 2005, he insists. Visual stimulation is where it's at, he says.

Me? Visually stimulating?

Well no, Paul chokes out, it's the pie charts and graphs that'll knock 'em dead.

So he shows me a couple of poser analysts droning on youtube, and fer sure, they are lacking Munster-type charisma. And then he shows me what that guy Pogue is doing at New York Times. Great stuff. But they're a media outlet I say. They've got an on-site $6 million post production studio. Besides, Pogue has real writers.

Well we've got Viv, says Paul.

OK Paul, but my ties are light-years better, and you know I'm NOT dumbing down on the ties (a senior analyst has to draw the line somewhere).

I mention we'd have to get the idea cleared through the higher ups. That'll take five years. Paul retorts that since Andrew is handling the paparazzi he can do battle with Mr. Piper and Mr. Jaffray. Not a problem, he says.

I just don't have time for it, I argue.

But Paul has covered that base too. "Gene, you can fake vlog during your daily fake commute, you know, while doing your fake driving."

He gave me this "how to" video on it. I have to admit one thing -- it does make good use of the neighborhood kids.

They're Still Following the Piper.

Lehman raised their target on Apple to $190 today. As usual they waited until the previous roadkill target ($160) had been driven over 10,000 times, just to make sure it was really dead.

Good job Mr. Blount. You win the "Zune of Analysts" award.

Getting my questions ready

for the conference call. The fine citizens of Munster Nation surely recall that Peter shut me down last time, but we made nice afterwards and he assured me that this time around he'll give me my due.

Viv wants me to make some reference to the Zune 2, but I'd be wasting my time with that, so I told her no (much to her dismay, let me tell you). Nope, I'll be focusing on iPhone, and maybe even that Apple TV... the sleeping giant of the Apple arsenal.

And the eps? Look for a buck-0-fiver.

GS does not mean "Geologically Stable"

Funny how the Goldman Sachs target upgrade on Apple triggered a 5.2 on the richter scale yesterday afternoon.

But don't worry folks. Count on Team Munster, located here in the tectonically boring midwest. No sudden eruptions, no plate shifts, and no hurricanes. Just the occasional tyrant tornado.

And now you have the answer to Cramer's perennial question ("Geno, what's a great analyst like you doing in Minneapolis?").

In fifty years, when New York, London, San Francisco and the rest go the way of Atlantis (no, this isn't a signal to short the market) I'll be at the world's financial center.

Don't believe me? Ask Al Gore.

You betcha, fixing our roads and bridges is just the beginning.

Goldman Sachs is so yesterday. Piper is skating to where the broomball is going to be!

In case you weren't sure...

ANYONE can run for President.

So I get an email from Al Franken, the comedian running for Senate. He says he's got this idea, about a Franken-Munster ticket. Never mind that US Senators don't have running mates he says. He needs to be ready when Hillary gets the boot. He says he got this great idea while reading my blog, and anyway, he thinks the content is good but the writing sucks, and maybe he could send the SNL writers over and what do I think about that?

With me on his ticket, he says, his research team is sure he can win Dawson, Moose Lake, Eveleth, New Prague AND Wayzata. Then it's on to Pennsylvania Ave. post-Hillary.

"Gene, picture it: The Franken-Munster Decade!"

Now this beats all. Everybody wants to ride the Team Munster train to fame.

I rewrote Judy's job description, and over her protests she's been assigned to respond to these Munster celeb inquiries. Fortunately Andrew volunteered to lead the Paparazzi Distractor Task Force (PDTF), but only after I mentioned an alternate assignment covering Microsoft.

The Berenstains Raise Their Target

Hey investors, papa bear says this new $175 target should be good for the day. 

Sister Bear's happy because AAPL is still rated at 'market perform'.

Don't worry kids. Sanford Bernstein is still offering free coloring
books to new clients. And don't forget to check out the interactive
fantasy storybook and virtual maze on their website.

Thanks again for the gifts and cards

AAPL was up another $7 plus last week, and I just wanted to thank Kyle for sending another Team Munster cap.

We've received many Munster caps, and I've been seeing them all around town lately.

Anyway, just wanted to express my gratitude for your loyalty to to Team M here at PJ.

Yared breaks the unwritten law

regarding Piper maintaining the highest target on AAPL.

Judy and Viv flew into my office with Georges Yared's Hail Mary half-attempt to pass us up this morning:

"The stock has been acting superbly these past two months and after the earnings conference call look for many analysts to move their price targets to $200 and higher. My price target is $200 and I am prepared to move it to $225."

My target is $211; Yared's dancing on very thin ice here. Plus his research basically sucks. But anyway...

So Judy says "heck, $225 ain't dramastically higher than our target" ( upon hearing 'ain't dramastically' Viv winces in pain).

"It's just nutsy cuckoo to flip out over this third rate guy," she adds (at this Viv groans and mutters something about 'nutsy' and adjective formation rules).

"I'm already over it," I say.

But the women, for some reason, aren't.

So Viv adds that we need to cut the guy some slack. "After all," she tosses out, "he has to overcome that unfortunate name . . . how many struggle with the 'initial Y' handicap in America?"

Judy rolls her eyes at that, but folks, it's true. Rumor has it Yared almost got tagged as special ed back in grade school. They hadn't met their quota and panicked when they got down to the Y's. He had to recite the Gettysburg address five times to dodge that fate. It left a mark on the guy.

Viv continues. "Golly, and anyway, who has a plural first name? He's not putting anything past anyone. One analyst, one brain. That's how it works Mr. George with an "s"!

By this time Judy has broken two pencils in her bare hands. "That's nutsy cuckoo Viv," she says, "I think he's Greek."

Viv glares back at her.

"It's ok," I say. "Really. Yared has broken free. I can't call these chumps "n00bs" and then not give them props when they step up to the plate and offer a real target like we do. And you know, they name children just like that up in Anoka."

Viv and Judy immediately snap to attention. "Yah?" queries Viv.

"It's a scary place . . . you know, the Halloween Capitol of the World and all that."

They laugh and head for the door.

Keeping the peace on Team Munster is all part of a day's work. It takes wit and humor and courage. And it helps to be a graduate of the Piper Samarai Team Building program.

Note to George with an 's' Yared: That tie passes "Munster muster" but here's a free tip: You can use Photoshop to eliminate the unsightly piece growing out below your wrist (cross platform but of course I recommend OS X). Viv blushed profusely and mentioned how it draws the eyes downward . . . and I didn't want to ask her anything more about THAT.

Then end is near

Doug Kass:

To sum it up: iPhone is a game changer, and I finally get what Apple bulls have been on to for awhile. That said, with the shares up dramatically both absolutely and relatively, I am late to the party for Apple as a short-term consideration.

1. Game Changer is my catch phrase

2. Run for the hills, Doug Kass is positive on aapl

Team Munster Divides and Conquers

Once a month Team Munster does a "Channel Blitz" in Minnesota. There are four Apple Stores here so Viv, Andrew, Judy and I would usually each drive out to one. But now that we have Andrew I'm able to run operations from home. That way I can use my 24" iMac and have the team log in with iChat for live shots. Naturally I wear a tie in case anyone at the stores should see me, but below the waist I'm in my boxers. Being a Senior Research Analyst has its advantages.

For the most part things went smoothly, though Paul caught a little heat from security as he was spinning the 17" Macbook Pro around so I could see the whole store at the Mall of America. And the reports were astounding. The team found that all of the stores were at capacity for most of the day, and products are flying off shelves into those cool Apple drawstring bags and out the door like it's December.

Which brings up an interesting situation: What is Apple going to do about traffic during the

 holidays? Judy thinks people are going to have to make appointments to shop at the Apple Store, sort of like making an appointment at the genius bar. Andrew took it a step further and suggested that Pro Care may be upgraded to included guaranteed shopping times. I like his style.

Whatever they do, they're going to have to do something, because I think the fire marshals are going to get involved in a big way, I kid you not.

At times I get tired of being Captain Obvious

The music record business is dead. Yes dead. But I had to tell it to those guys at Minneapolis Star Tribune (AGAIN).

Yah, this is ancient news at Piper, because unlike other n00b analyst firms, we actually do research. You know, like retail checks and focus groups and such.

So what do teens buy? NOT their music. Vivian and Judy did this research OVER a year ago:



Apparently this is big news to the Strib chumps. Hey guys, how's that downsizing going over there? And no, we don't have a job for Par Ridder.

What the heck is a Tommo?

Faithful reader Bubbler pointed out this post by some guy named Tommo_UK. 

I don't know what a "Tommo" is, but this guy is smart and has moxie. The n00b analysts don't have reports that are nearly as insightful.

I told Andrew to start researching this guy. We might need to make an overseas addition to Team Munster.

Chapter Seventeen

Viv rushed into my office today.

"Gene! Microsoft released a new and improved Zune!"

"No kidding."

She nodded smugly. "Another chapter! Just when I was ready to submit the book."

Reader, you might recall that Viv's writing a genre-bending tome called Zuned: Another Microsoft Software Blunder.

"That's a problem Viv?"

"Not really." She shrugged. "I have to add Chapter Seventeen: Zuned Again. It will add 1,236 words."

"Uh huh." 

I expect Viv, brilliant analyst that she is, will be sucked into an endless loop for the rest of the week.

"Gene, anything you need to know about the new Zune, well gosh, I'm your woman!"

"That's a comfort to know Viv."

The Double Slot Pops Up with Burnt Toast

He called me on the Piper phone.

"Geno, pal, you've got to help me."

"Uh, what's up JC?"

"They're sending me burnt toast! Thousands of slices of burnt toast!"

"Toast?"

"Yeah, Yeah. So I laid a worm on the Apple. And, can you believe it -- the lemmings sold! Then the stock went UP! All last week! The carnage! The train wrecks! You have NO IDEA! "

*cough* "Geez Jim, I can't imagine why Apple stock would go up!" (chump!)

"You have 

NO IDEA, 

NO IDEA 

about the pain I'm suffering!"

"Guess not." (n00b)

"Gene, this toast thing is completely your fault! Double Slot? Double Slot? You have NO IDEA! You owe me!"

"Huh?"

"Listen Geno, I know what you gotta do to get eyeballs. Do I ever know! But you can redeem yourself. I've got an idea."

"Redeem MY self?."

"Yeah Gene. The Apple fan club wants a rebate for the money they've lost. Can you believe it? What is it with those guys? So I noticed you're getting loads of gifts, like bowling shirts you probably can't use, duplicates even. Gene, back up the truck, you know, ship those out to me to use as rebates. You know, sort of a 'Cramer gift back' program."

"Oh. Uh, Paul took the extra bowling shirt. I can't take back Vivan's Parker pen set. And Andrew got the fruit cake."

"So what are saying? You got nothin' for Jimbo?"

"I'm saying you should make the right call on the stock next time . . . "

Sigh.

Raising by a Hamilton?

Seyrafi, you call raising your (shamefully low) $165 estimate by ten bucks an upgrade? Seriously? Aapl's going to be at $165 by earnings at this rate, and to your new target shortly thereafter.

At least Whitmore got in the same ballpark with me at $200. About freakin' time I get some company there.

What the heck are these n00bs doing every day? I went over $200 months ago. Did I falter when aapl went down to $130? Did I waver when it went to $111? Did I tell you corn was on sale?

The rest of these guys are chumps, pure and simple. Stick with the SENIOR Research Analyst at the one and only Piper J.