Nah

July 7, 2007:

WATERLOO–If Jim Balsillie is concerned about the arrival of Apple Inc.'s much-hyped iPhone, he's doing a good job of keeping it to himself.

The co-CEO of Research In Motion Ltd., which makes the popular line of BlackBerry email devices, said in an interview at RIM's Waterloo headquarters that he's not losing sleep over Apple's efforts to upend the wireless market in much the same way as its wildly popular iPod music devices changed the way people acquire and listen to music.

In fact, Balsillie said he couldn't even confirm whether anyone at RIM's sprawling campus has managed to get their hands on an iPhone, which went on sale in the United States a week ago amid a torrent of media coverage.

"I haven't seen one," he volunteered with a shrug of his shoulders and a bored expression.

"It's possible, I guess. I mean, you watch these things, but you really have to just focus and do your job."

Focus and denial can bear a strange resemblance Jim. RIMM investors, Munster Nation welcomes you with open arms.

Episode X: Symbians Battle the Androids

Episode X: 

Symbians Battle the Androids

It has been many years since the mighty Empire fell to the great

Knight OS X. OS X has since reformed The Order and become 

Grand Master of the Universe.

Peace has reigned and the Grand Master has prospered. Yet, just when OS X 

believed he would never again be challenged by the Dark Side, more news of 

the Symbian's feeble efforts to destroy the Force is delivered to him.

But lo, the Symbians must battle the Androids first, and they will suffer many hardships 

on the planet Google.

The news emboldens a vision in the Great Master . . . and the seeds of a grand plan begin 

to grow . . . .

Today's 'Droid Flareup

I've previously mentioned it here and here and here.

But today Google requeued the tape and played it again.

Looks like developers and carriers are now openly playing "Avoid the Droid".

Geez, I'm a broken record

Blockbuster or Netflix?

iTunes, by a mile.

Two Slot is on the Ropes

A call came through on the Piper land line from Cramer.

"Geno!"

"Cramer."

"I need some help pal."

"You bet. What can I do for you?"

"Schnitchel your $250 target on Apple Gene."

" Huh?"

"I told Cramerica to dump 75% of their Apple stock."

"You did what?"

"Just before Apple's annual lovefest. You probably saw it."

"Uh, I don't watch your show . . . ."

"There was too much hype about the iPhone! Now the stock is bouncing, so yesterday I had to use the Job's health scare nonsense. It didn't work! The stock went up. You gotta help me. I'm looking like, BAD, on that call."

"Geez Jim, I dunno. $250 might actually be low . . . did you see all those countries Apple will be selling into? GPS. Push mail. Everybody in the office wants one."

"I need some advice Gene. You have NO IDEA, NO IDEA."

"You're right. I don't. Good luck Jim."

Churn Baby Churn

Now Cramer's trying to save the banks with the Satan of last resort saves: Commissions. The retail nick is always the lowest card in the deck.

So, not only does he recommend selling Apple, but he recommended selling it in TWO transactions. Then he goes on to recommend a third transaction -- buying some back again tomorrow (minus what you'll need to save to pay capital gains) if the reviews on the new iPhone are good.

Check out the video clip for what passes as good investment advice these days. Note that Two-Slot can't recommend a better place to put that 75% of AAPL (other than Apple -- buy it back tomorrow) that he says you should sell.

Donkey quote: "I'm not a technologist ok."

Why does anyone listen to this guy?

The Beta Fraternity Weighs In

Apple has been on our Piper Jaffray Alpha list for months. Team Munster has a 'Buy' and $250 target on the stock.

The New York boys are late to the party again. They have to wait for Team Munster to do the research; then they choke it down and thrash around before they cough it back up.

Ask Team Munster (TM)

Q: How are Shaw Wu and Apple alike?

A: They are both all over the map

Am Tech's chump analyst downgraded AAPL to "hold" and lowered his target just ahead of the April 23rd earnings announcement. Six weeks later he suddenly upped his rating to 'Buy' and set a $210 target on the stock. Here's the psychiatric profile on Wu, and it's from a blogging source you can trust. With a name like Zach Bass you know he's at least a quarter Minnesotan.

So how is Apple all over the map? Check this out.

RIM Puts a Nickel in the Parking Meter

Research in Motion, Thomson Reuters, and Royal Bank of Canada each ponied up to create a $150 million fund to bribe iPhone developers to port their software to the Blackberry.

It's a start -- about 15 minutes worth. They need to be careful. Those meters will bleed you worse than a trip to Leech Lake

Gonna Make Me Say It Again?

Blockbuster or Netflix?

iTunes

Aw Shucks

AppleInsider Poll

Who do you think is the most accurate Apple analyst?

Gene Munster (Piper Jaffray) 57.4%
Shaw Wu (AmTech) 13.2%
Rich Gardner (Citigroup) 10.5%
Mike Abramsky (RBC Capital) 7.0%
Ben Reitzes (Lehman Brothers) 5.0%
Tavis McCourt (Morgan Keegan) 2.7%
Katy Huberty (Morgan Stanley) 2.6%
Scott Craig (Bank of America) 1.6%

Total votes: 741

Conference Calls and Komodo Dragons

You can listen to it here.

Listen to the summary on the front end and skip to my line of questioning about half way through.

For the rest listen to Bob and Ray's classic, "The Komodo Dragon", second from the bottom on this page.

P.S. Microsoft saying they are being "cautious about the economy" is dishonest. They know what's really happening, and so does Munster Nation.

Wu Wu Ch'Boogie

Headin' for Fast Money with a pack on my back,
Tired of chump analysts handin' Apple the hack,
I love to hear the sound of hedgies gettin' the sack,
And see their hands a tremblin' as their sellin' their crack,
Blabbering such nonsense cause they don't know Mac,
So, I set them right back with the facts, Jack!

Wu wu, wu wu, ch'boogie!
Woo, woo, ooh,ooh, ch'boogie,
Choo, choo, choo, choo, ch'boogie,
I set them right back with the facts, Jack!

Amusing Ironies

Nokia's CEO says the iPhone is just a "niche" product. He added that Nokia is working to have an iPhone clone available the second half of 2008.

Marketwatch appears to be doing it's US economic reporting from Amman, Jordan. Folks I'm not outsourced . . . still in Minneapolis USA.

Merrill Lynch posted write downs of $2 billion for the first quarter and 4,000 in job cuts, but the CEO said the core business is fine.
Viv wants to know how much diesel they have left in the backup generator.

Watch out for the currency translation effect this earnings season. IBM got a boost (which got shoved under the rug) but Nokia took a hit (and you'd have to be deaf and blind not to know).

You're Welcome

Did you see me raise the average IQ by two hundred points on the Fast Money set? Heh. Just being on that show is a risk to my reputation . . . how about that Wallenda remark from Macke the Knife? Uff Duh.

You probably wonder about my connection with the Taiwanese suppliers. Let's just say it's good business to have a hot female Chinese language speaker on the team (thanks Viv). She rocks in Minnesotan too. Never, ever underestimate the Minneapolis-Asian connection. Northwest Orient is headquartered here. Go ahead, Google it. They dropped the Orient but we've been making tracks to Asia better and faster than anybody since the 60's.

One more thing to consider. Remember when Apple lowered the price on iPhone and customers threatened a nasty brawl? The rebates?
This time could they be selling off existing stock to give the market a little breathing room? Think about it. When the 3G is released Apple will sit in the fast innovation penalty box for five minutes vs. getting run over by the zamboni again. Staying ahead of the puck. That's what this is about.

Hey it's not like I've been sitting around eating bon-bons.

I know, I know, I've been remiss in posting to the blog. But friends I hope you now understand. We've been working on the report for weeks, and the team made me promise to stay focused and lay off the blogging until it was done.

Well, I hope you will forgive me. And I hope you like the report. 45 millions phones are in the bag for 2009.

So bring it on, fud-slinging nay sayers! You will be proven wrong yet again. Did the iPod teach you anything?

Air is adding to mac sales... who knew?

This just in!!!!

Apple saw particular strength in notebook systems, which rose 64 percent in units and 67 percent in revenues, suggesting strong sell-through of the company's new MacBook Air, noted Hargreaves.

"Macbook Air sales appear to be additive to total sales, rather than replacing Macbook Pro sales," he said. "We believe a new set of corporate customers make up a meaningful portion of MacBook Air buyers."

Gee now let's see, didn't we hear something about that being the case? Back in February I think it was...

Oh yeah that's right, it was ME!

Why iPhone Will Storm Enterprise

People have been asking me why Apple would license Microsoft Exchange ActiveSync. Analysts at Tidbits.com say it best:

"Apple surprised many industry watchers by announcing that they'd licensed Microsoft Exchange ActiveSync from Microsoft, as Apple rarely licenses anything that's core to their purpose. But in the enterprise, Exchange is one of the kings, and Apple had to pay obeisance to get the pieces necessary to perform robust synchronization and communication. With full Exchange support, Apple can directly take on Research in Motion (RIM) and its BlackBerry communicators. Apple took aim at RIM by criticizing their single-point-of-failure approach to having all email and messaging pass through RIM's servers; two recent brief failures have highlighted RIM's vulnerability. In Apple's approach, the iPhone will communicate directly with the enterprise's servers."


Security and dependability matter. Which system would you choose for your business?

AAPL Target: $250