Gene Munster: Fake AAPL Analyst

Nah

2008-06-26T05:32:00.000-07:00

July 7, 2007:

WATERLOO–If Jim Balsillie is concerned about the arrival of Apple Inc.'s much-hyped iPhone, he's doing a good job of keeping it to himself.

The co-CEO of Research In Motion Ltd., which makes the popular line of BlackBerry email devices, said in an interview at RIM's Waterloo headquarters that he's not losing sleep over Apple's efforts to upend the wireless market in much the same way as its wildly popular iPod music devices changed the way people acquire and listen to music.

In fact, Balsillie said he couldn't even confirm whether anyone at RIM's sprawling campus has managed to get their hands on an iPhone, which went on sale in the United States a week ago amid a torrent of media coverage.

"I haven't seen one," he volunteered with a shrug of his shoulders and a bored expression.

"It's possible, I guess. I mean, you watch these things, but you really have to just focus and do your job."

Focus and denial can bear a strange resemblance Jim. RIMM investors, Munster Nation welcomes you with open arms.

Episode X: Symbians Battle the Androids

2008-06-24T10:12:00.000-07:00

Episode X:

Symbians Battle the Androids

It has been many years since the mighty Empire fell to the great

Knight OS X. OS X has since reformed The Order and become

Grand Master of the Universe.

Peace has reigned and the Grand Master has prospered. Yet, just when OS X

believed he would never again be challenged by the Dark Side, more news of

the Symbian's feeble efforts to destroy the Force is delivered to him.

But lo, the Symbians must battle the Androids first, and they will suffer many hardships

on the planet Google.

The news emboldens a vision in the Great Master . . . and the seeds of a grand plan begin

to grow . . . .

Today's 'Droid Flareup

2008-06-23T18:54:00.000-07:00

I've previously mentioned it here and here and here.

But today Google requeued the tape and played it again.

Looks like developers and carriers are now openly playing "Avoid the Droid".

Geez, I'm a broken record

2008-06-21T08:33:00.000-07:00

Blockbuster or Netflix?

iTunes, by a mile.

Two Slot is on the Ropes

2008-06-19T05:18:00.001-07:00

A call came through on the Piper land line from Cramer.

"Geno!"

"Cramer."

"I need some help pal."

"You bet. What can I do for you?"

"Schnitchel your $250 target on Apple Gene."

" Huh?"

"I told Cramerica to dump 75% of their Apple stock."

"You did what?"

"Just before Apple's annual lovefest. You probably saw it."

"Uh, I don't watch your show . . . ."

"There was too much hype about the iPhone! Now the stock is bouncing, so yesterday I had to use the Job's health scare nonsense. It didn't work! The stock went up. You gotta help me. I'm looking like, BAD, on that call."

"Geez Jim, I dunno. $250 might actually be low . . . did you see all those countries Apple will be selling into? GPS. Push mail. Everybody in the office wants one."

"I need some advice Gene. You have NO IDEA, NO IDEA."

"You're right. I don't. Good luck Jim."

Churn Baby Churn

2008-06-10T03:47:00.000-07:00

Now Cramer's trying to save the banks with the Satan of last resort saves: Commissions. The retail nick is always the lowest card in the deck.

So, not only does he recommend selling Apple, but he recommended selling it in TWO transactions. Then he goes on to recommend a third transaction -- buying some back again tomorrow (minus what you'll need to save to pay capital gains) if the reviews on the new iPhone are good.

Check out the video clip for what passes as good investment advice these days. Note that Two-Slot can't recommend a better place to put that 75% of AAPL (other than Apple -- buy it back tomorrow) that he says you should sell.

Donkey quote: "I'm not a technologist ok."

Why does anyone listen to this guy?

The Beta Fraternity Weighs In

2008-05-23T15:43:00.001-07:00

Apple has been on our Piper Jaffray Alpha list for months. Team Munster has a 'Buy' and $250 target on the stock.

The New York boys are late to the party again. They have to wait for Team Munster to do the research; then they choke it down and thrash around before they cough it back up.

Ask Team Munster (TM)

2008-05-17T09:12:00.000-07:00

Q: How are Shaw Wu and Apple alike?

A: They are both all over the map

Am Tech's chump analyst downgraded AAPL to "hold" and lowered his target just ahead of the April 23rd earnings announcement. Six weeks later he suddenly upped his rating to 'Buy' and set a $210 target on the stock. Here's the psychiatric profile on Wu, and it's from a blogging source you can trust. With a name like Zach Bass you know he's at least a quarter Minnesotan.

So how is Apple all over the map? Check this out.

RIM Puts a Nickel in the Parking Meter

2008-05-12T14:33:00.000-07:00

Research in Motion, Thomson Reuters, and Royal Bank of Canada each ponied up to create a $150 million fund to bribe iPhone developers to port their software to the Blackberry.

It's a start -- about 15 minutes worth. They need to be careful. Those meters will bleed you worse than a trip to Leech Lake

Gonna Make Me Say It Again?

2008-05-02T14:57:00.001-07:00

Blockbuster or Netflix?

iTunes

Aw Shucks

2008-04-24T16:54:00.000-07:00

AppleInsider Poll

Who do you think is the most accurate Apple analyst?

Gene Munster (Piper Jaffray) 57.4%
Shaw Wu (AmTech) 13.2%
Rich Gardner (Citigroup) 10.5%
Mike Abramsky (RBC Capital) 7.0%
Ben Reitzes (Lehman Brothers) 5.0%
Tavis McCourt (Morgan Keegan) 2.7%
Katy Huberty (Morgan Stanley) 2.6%
Scott Craig (Bank of America) 1.6%

Total votes: 741

Conference Calls and Komodo Dragons

2008-04-24T13:59:00.000-07:00

You can listen to it here.

Listen to the summary on the front end and skip to my line of questioning about half way through.

For the rest listen to Bob and Ray's classic, "The Komodo Dragon", second from the bottom on this page.

P.S. Microsoft saying they are being "cautious about the economy" is dishonest. They know what's really happening, and so does Munster Nation.

Wu Wu Ch'Boogie

2008-04-22T15:22:00.000-07:00

Headin' for Fast Money with a pack on my back,
Tired of chump analysts handin' Apple the hack,
I love to hear the sound of hedgies gettin' the sack,
And see their hands a tremblin' as their sellin' their crack,
Blabbering such nonsense cause they don't know Mac,
So, I set them right back with the facts, Jack!

Wu wu, wu wu, ch'boogie!
Woo, woo, ooh,ooh, ch'boogie,
Choo, choo, choo, choo, ch'boogie,
I set them right back with the facts, Jack!

Amusing Ironies

2008-04-17T20:57:00.001-07:00

Nokia's CEO says the iPhone is just a "niche" product. He added that Nokia is working to have an iPhone clone available the second half of 2008.

Marketwatch appears to be doing it's US economic reporting from Amman, Jordan. Folks I'm not outsourced . . . still in Minneapolis USA.

Merrill Lynch posted write downs of $2 billion for the first quarter and 4,000 in job cuts, but the CEO said the core business is fine.
Viv wants to know how much diesel they have left in the backup generator.

Watch out for the currency translation effect this earnings season. IBM got a boost (which got shoved under the rug) but Nokia took a hit (and you'd have to be deaf and blind not to know).

You're Welcome

2008-04-02T17:52:00.001-07:00

Did you see me raise the average IQ by two hundred points on the Fast Money set? Heh. Just being on that show is a risk to my reputation . . . how about that Wallenda remark from Macke the Knife? Uff Duh.

You probably wonder about my connection with the Taiwanese suppliers. Let's just say it's good business to have a hot female Chinese language speaker on the team (thanks Viv). She rocks in Minnesotan too. Never, ever underestimate the Minneapolis-Asian connection. Northwest Orient is headquartered here. Go ahead, Google it. They dropped the Orient but we've been making tracks to Asia better and faster than anybody since the 60's.

One more thing to consider. Remember when Apple lowered the price on iPhone and customers threatened a nasty brawl? The rebates?
This time could they be selling off existing stock to give the market a little breathing room? Think about it. When the 3G is released Apple will sit in the fast innovation penalty box for five minutes vs. getting run over by the zamboni again. Staying ahead of the puck. That's what this is about.

Hey it's not like I've been sitting around eating bon-bons.

2008-03-31T13:57:00.000-07:00

I know, I know, I've been remiss in posting to the blog. But friends I hope you now understand. We've been working on the report for weeks, and the team made me promise to stay focused and lay off the blogging until it was done.

Well, I hope you will forgive me. And I hope you like the report. 45 millions phones are in the bag for 2009.

So bring it on, fud-slinging nay sayers! You will be proven wrong yet again. Did the iPod teach you anything?

Air is adding to mac sales... who knew?

2008-03-17T16:41:00.000-07:00

This just in!!!!

Apple saw particular strength in notebook systems, which rose 64 percent in units and 67 percent in revenues, suggesting strong sell-through of the company's new MacBook Air, noted Hargreaves.

"Macbook Air sales appear to be additive to total sales, rather than replacing Macbook Pro sales," he said. "We believe a new set of corporate customers make up a meaningful portion of MacBook Air buyers."

Gee now let's see, didn't we hear something about that being the case? Back in February I think it was...

Oh yeah that's right, it was ME!

Why iPhone Will Storm Enterprise

2008-03-15T12:20:00.000-07:00

People have been asking me why Apple would license Microsoft Exchange ActiveSync. Analysts at Tidbits.com say it best:

"Apple surprised many industry watchers by announcing that they'd licensed Microsoft Exchange ActiveSync from Microsoft, as Apple rarely licenses anything that's core to their purpose. But in the enterprise, Exchange is one of the kings, and Apple had to pay obeisance to get the pieces necessary to perform robust synchronization and communication. With full Exchange support, Apple can directly take on Research in Motion (RIM) and its BlackBerry communicators. Apple took aim at RIM by criticizing their single-point-of-failure approach to having all email and messaging pass through RIM's servers; two recent brief failures have highlighted RIM's vulnerability. In Apple's approach, the iPhone will communicate directly with the enterprise's servers."

Security and dependability matter. Which system would you choose for your business?

AAPL Target: $250

She'll be OK, I think

2008-03-03T18:59:00.001-08:00

Thanks to Viv for the magnolia tea tip. And thanks for all your concerned emails. Even the one from "AAPL Anna" up in Mille Lacs. The lady offered to run down with dried "infusion" leaves from her magical fence screener plants (Yah, can you believe it? At the next cc I'm gonna ask why there's no background checking on Apple shareholders.)

Anyway, Violet was so agitated by the time I got over there she insisted on calling her lawyer. She wants to start a class action against Sprint.

So I had to tell her Sprint has a big ass hole in their bucket.

That didn't go over very well. OK . . . it was a disaster. So I'm blogging from Regions ER . . . they say it will be just five stitches.

Oopsie Daisy

2008-03-02T20:02:00.001-08:00

My cousin Violet is a sucker for deceptive TV ads.

By age three (1988) we had the diagnosis. It was the year of the "Oopsie Daisy" fad, a "smart" doll that crawled, fell down, cried "Mama", then righted herself and continued crawling.

Saturday morning TV Oopsie ads were Violet's gateway drug. Cue the music to "Pop goes the Weasel". "Oopsie daisy's learning to crawl, she's such a pretty baby...oop! oopsie daisy!"

To sane adults -- which her parents were at the time -- it was nauseating. But little Violet HAD to have that doll, a fact she reminded her parents about until it drove them to distraction.

So on Christmas morning, 1988, her father took it from the box and quickly installed two C batteries (while Violet was jumping up and down and holding her crotch). Dad turned on the doll and set her into crawl position.

Violet started screaming. The relatives were baffled, and had trouble yelling over the gear grinding noise coming from the toy. The same noise that was scaring the bejeezus out of Violet. She began to cry. "That wasn't on the TV commercial", she wailed.

The Oopsie Daisy Christmas was just the beginning. No matter how hard we work as a family to help her overcome this addiction she periodically falls into the trap.

So Violet saw the latest Sprint Blackberry Pearl "smart" phone ad, the one that features a guy on a moving sidewalk in an airport. He's using a combination finger/laser pointer to write words in the air, which are magically transmitted as text messages or email or something.

Violet bit for it. You bet, I got the call this time. Her parents couldn't be bothered; they were busy logging on to hypnosisdownloadsfortraumatizedparents.com.

Anyway she said it's all Apple's fault. After all, they show how the iPhone works on their TV ads, with the touches and all. The Blackberry ad didn't have tiny print disclaimer on the screen, you know, "Dramatization -- don't try this at home" or whatever. Violet assumed Blackberry had honestly invented air writing to beat iPhone. It looked so cool, she said.

Ugh. I'm going over with oolong magnolia tea to help Violet through this latest "oopsie" episode.

Those Berenstain Bears!

2008-02-28T14:24:00.001-08:00

Folks I've mentioned the Berenstain Bears and their imploding tree house here numerous times, so when Toni Sacconaghi blustered about missing iPhones and iPod sales recently I didn't even bother to mention it.

Yes, the chump analyst spoke out of turn.

Stay the course investors. Great things to come.

So last week I called Apple

2008-02-27T15:13:00.000-08:00

and offered to send TC to the Goldman Sachs Tech Symposium. Joanie, in Investor Relations said, "It's ok, we've got him. He can hit. He can pitch. He can make a triple play." Imagine my surprise when it turned out to be Tim Cook. And oh yes, he hit it out of the park.

Papparazi Task Force

2008-02-25T14:23:00.001-08:00

Thanks to all the Minnesota Oscar winners. I can move around town in relative obscurity for a couple weeks.

Hey, how about them Coens were trying to low key it? They'll be hiding behind Diablo as they trot through the airport (after all, the shine is off the Craig Memorial Men's Bathroom Stall). Heck, them Coens are pretty smart. They bought into Viv's set up to get Diablo Cody into a Wilma Flintstone dress. Ex-strippers from Minneapolis in bad fashion will trump. Folks are already starting a pool to guess the location of the other tattoos. You bet, the local Pap will be swilling her faster than frat boys on a keg.

Hang in there Apple investors.

Apple announced a new product recently, and it's selling, and not cannibalizing other product sales --- Good, right?

2008-02-12T14:02:00.000-08:00

Wrong. The media types *cue Jaws music here* have to "angle" it, and what better way than by comparing the new product's sales to another existing blockbuster seller?
The result is here.

Katie buried the Munster money quote at the bottom of the article: "[For these] reason[s] resellers indicate that sales of the MacBook Air have been additive to their overall Mac sales in the quarter," Munster advised clients. "The MacBook Air addresses the need for mobility unlike any other Mac, and as such we believe it is not cannibalizing sales of other Mac laptops."

Better headline: Apple Taps New Mobility Market with MacBook Air.

Motorola Dead, Nokia in Denial

2008-02-11T17:28:00.001-08:00

and strangled chokes are emanating from the Blackberry company (RIMM):

"Clear! Clear!"

Research might be in motion, but disaster recovery needs to check into rehab.

New Charity Buyout Candidate: Sony

2008-02-09T09:14:00.001-08:00

See here. The author wonders out loud why Apple doesn't just buy Sony.

You betcha -- Apple is dying to buy Sony to get their hands on that advanced joystick technology. Does the writer work for Microsoft? Because buying Sony would be the fastest way to dilute Apple's focus and slow the innovation machine. Apple management isn't a bunch of whiplash sadists foaming at the mouth to experience the pain of Sony's culture. Yah, Mr. Pesek, you got that one right.

Recently Rumored Apple Buyouts

2008-02-04T17:40:00.000-08:00

Takeover Target	Less Obvious Reasons to Buy (Compliments of Team Munster Research)
Yahoo!	Just to piss off Microsoft
Palm	1. Newton Nostagia Move 2. Ensure the historical preservation of gray-on-green screens
Disney	1. Burning desire to build "his and her" Minnie and Mickey Macs 2. To piss off Time Warner/AOL
Nintendo	1. Convert old joystick technology to multi-touch 2. To piss off Microsoft
TiVO	1. Rhymes with early prototype codename for Apple TV, which was "STEVO" 2.To piss off Comcast
Napster	1. To hold customers hostage for monthly rental payments 2. After all, loan sharking is illegal
Motorola cell phone biz	1. College marketing interns wanted to work on selling ROKR ("we can sell it, we know we can!")
Universal Music	1. iTunes has already captured all earthbound music 2. To piss off RIAA
Sun	1. Revenge against IBM for the G4 processor 2. To put it out of its misery.
Adobe	1. To kill Flash 2.To piss off Microsoft
Sprint/Nextel	1. Idea from the young engineers at Apple -- they missed Walkie Talkies the first time around
Google	1.Why buy Yahoo when you can get the Alpha dog? 2.To piss off Microsoft

Droids are Lost in Space

2008-02-04T14:01:00.000-08:00

As I've previously mentioned and re-mentioned, the Google Android smart phone software development effort is a teen skateboard-park project.

Latest news is the deadline for the Developer's Challenge (aka "Developer's Nightmare") has been delayed due to significant updates to the SDK (System Developer's Kit).

Anyway, if you didn't know this was going south the day they announced the whole thing, it was crystal clear when they implemented an "Issue Tracker" system. This is never a good sign, because these systems don't get installed until there are about 150 "issues" piled up in the queue. Trust me on this. I've been there.

And Viv -- God Bless her because she's always right about these things -- said "Gene, anything with "roid" in the name is gonna be a pain in the butt. Guaranteed."

You betcha, she called it right (again).

A New Vista!

2008-02-03T06:13:00.000-08:00

It's called Yahoo!, and Microsoft hopes it will be delivering Net-based applications to a machine (which will likely be running Mac OSX or Linux) near you.

They paid $44 billion for this latest shot in the dark.

It's not over until Klondike Kate sings

2008-01-31T11:58:00.000-08:00

See here.

And is it just me, or did the losing Klondike Kate contestants show up at the Queen of the Snows competition?

Last one out, turn off the lights

2008-01-28T13:46:00.000-08:00

Well, is Palm's CEO Holigan still so sure that the " "PC guys are not going to just figure this out. They're not going to just walk in''? Seems Palm is closing virtually all their stores. Must be because sales are killing?

The company's biggest threats may be its rivals. Research in Motion's BlackBerry smartphones have proven extremely popular with businessmen and other professionals, while the general public is taking to Apple's iPhone, favored for its storage and simpler user interface despite a $400 pricetag. Analyst Avi Greengart of Current Analysis argues that while Palm is by no means out of the fight, the company's prospects may depend on the release of a new Linux plaftorm, expected by the end of the year.

Linux. Yeah, that'll do it.

MOT. PALM.

RIM, are you watching this?

OK, Chew On This: Did CDs Survive iTunes?

2008-01-27T11:17:00.000-08:00

Apparently not. Money quotes: '"I sure am going to miss the CD," said Paul McCartney, whose Beatles are one of the last groups to refuse to sell their albums on iTunes. "On the bright side, new technology means that Beatles lovers now can buy our albums for the third or fourth time."' Among reasons to ditch CDs: "No more cellophane wrap. Those genius scientists figured out how to cram 10,000 songs onto an iPod small enough to hold in your butt crack, but could never invent a plastic wrap on CDs that didn't take minutes to get off, dangerously heighten your blood pressure and occasionally require stitches when you resorted to scissors."

Will Netflix Survive iTunes Movie Rentals?

2008-01-27T08:19:00.000-08:00

That is what Seeking Alpha wants to know.

No.

Apple Earnings Sucked Into Black Hole

2008-01-27T04:30:00.000-08:00

and the focus was on guidance, released into a blinding snowstorm and hastily gathering energy. Sell orders triggered more sell orders. Prices collapsed as a distressed market fed on itself.

Risk management and stop loss systems around the world had been triggered by Societe General's sell actions early in the week.

Financial institutions with liquidity problems have put their traders on a "short leash", leading to imposition of daily trading limits which shorten investment horizons. Think of troubled hedge funds and institutions. Naturally they will take measures to protect themselves from what has increasingly become daily news shocks (bank write downs, rogue traders, subprime/housing news, falling dollar, dogs and cats living together).

Naturally such institutional actions exacerbate volatility in markets.

So, you betcha, this driving wind is fear of the future -- fear of liquidity shocks, fear of recession and falling consumer spending, fear of rising oil and commodity prices, etc. These events may or may not come to pass but fear of them causes a run on the equity market today.

And, don't cha know, many good companies with excellent fundamentals and growth prospects are caught up in the blizzard.

But snow melts. Spring will arrive. Now it's time to venture across the river and visit Winter Carnival.

The French Connection

2008-01-25T15:02:00.001-08:00

Rogue: Having savage or destructive tendencies

French Rogue: Ditto, on a global scale

Bottom is in

2008-01-23T16:34:00.000-08:00

How do I know? Client emails which include:

•Wall Street is nothing but a bunch of crooks!
•I am writing a letter to Apple IR!
•Why isn't Steve releasing a PR to defend us?
•I just threw up.

I saved a spotlight search that looks for these terms in my inbox, and sure enough they coincide with the bottom of the other aapl selloffs.

Nutsy Cuckoo

2008-01-23T05:00:00.000-08:00

I got an interesting response during today's conference call to my question about the high end consumer's health as it relates to Apple's projected business results in 2008. Oppenheimer pointed out that revenue growth was 27% in US and 46% OUS last quarter.

So . . . any other consumer products companies with these results in the holiday quarter? Anybody? Bueller?

His point: Apple showed outstanding strength in the face of a challenging economic environment. Is it likely to continue?

Judy says the market reaction after hours was "nutsy cuckoo".

I agree. Time to go shopping.

Weekend Musings

2008-01-19T21:53:00.001-08:00

Why do so many business books use the word "Shark" in the title? Viv noted this phenomenon the other day, in titles such as Invest like a Shark, Swim with the Sharks, The Way of the Shark, Snipers, Shills and Sharks, Shark Tank, How to Beat the Sharks, The White Sharks of Wall Street, How to Beat the Money Sharks, Doing Business with Sharks, Flame-broiled Shark etc., etc. She recommended "Shark Repellent Investing: Avoid Nasty Bites in Your Portfolio" as my first book title. She says that the book will "write itself", and a shark title all but guarantees sales.

Hey, does anyone in management notice that the twelve hour, "your attendance required" seminar called "Work and Life Balance" creates twelve hours of catch-up work at the office? Not to mention a bottom- line deficit of 24 hours of your life wasted -- 24 hours you'll
never get back.

Munster Nation Tip: Always hire good people with rare and unusual talents (multi-linguists, track stars, hog-calling champions). This might not seem important at first. But at some future date a uniquely-talented employee will use theirability to give you an edge. Recent example: I have sharpshooter (extremely far) eyesight. This comes in handy at MacWorld keynotes. I can read the plethora of notes hastily scribbled in the margins on Steve's script, way up there on the stage.

As practiced as they seem, these talks are really off-the-cuff fare, and "loose cannon" Steve's handler's are worried he might lose it and go off-script. After all, the guy is past 50, so anything can happen. Anyway, to prevent disaster the margins are filled with stuff like "don't reveal iPhone sales numbers x,xxx,xxx!" and "NO telling Macbook sales y,yyy,yyy!" and "NO, don't mention products Z and ZZ yet!".

Oh yes. Corn is still in season.

Andrew says he won't miss the house flipping channel

2008-01-16T16:03:00.000-08:00

that he was forced to purchase with his bundled cable TV package. Judy says she never watched Spike TV either. But they anted up for those lovely "value added" channels because they're included with the "package" they needed to get the one channel they really wanted.

Thanks to iTunes, we can buy 99 cent singles.

Like iTunes, with over 4 billion sold to date, Apple TV will become the new standard for on-demand video consumption.

MacWorld keynotes are as much about what Jobs doesn't say as they are about what he explicitly presents.

Viv says he's like a great mystery writer. He plants clues, and the savvy reader is richly rewarded.

Read, Munster Nation, read well.

Stay iTuned

2008-01-15T18:39:00.000-08:00

To recap:

Netflix or Blockbuster?

Blu Ray or HD-DVD?

Apple.

Well done Steve. You've herded the Hollywood Cats.

Best of Show at CES

2008-01-14T14:15:00.000-08:00

Julio at Pioneer Press named the top 15 tech products presented at last week's Consumer Electronics Show (CES).

Clearly he had some tough decisions to make.

Roughly Drafted "gets it"

2008-01-13T16:18:00.000-08:00

"With Bonjour Ready, it will be as if the web transforms from a huge cloud of millions of websites to also become a series of local clouds that vend tailored information and services. Other hardware vendors can barely manage to develop local web administration pages for their wireless routers and other devices; Apple has already solved the problem of simple administration of its AirPort devices, including remote management of lots of devices. Apple’s lead in wireless networking is often overlooked. It shouldn’t be."

Full article here.

Not that I believe in conspiracy theories

2008-01-12T15:53:00.001-08:00

but here's another one. In the WSJ I'm quoted as saying: "Given the fact that the pace of Apple product improvements is between two times and four times faster than PC-based products, Apple buyers will always have a higher degree of buyer's remorse," says Gene Munster, an analyst at Piper Jaffray. What I really said: "Given the fact that the pace of Apple product improvements is between two times and four times faster than PC-based products, Apple will always have higher-pedigreed buyers, of course."

Uff Duh.

Don't Panic, Munster Nation

2008-01-12T15:52:00.001-08:00

The guy at the Star Tribune tried to paraphrase what I said and, well, what can I say? He gets it wrong sometimes. Viv reminds me that any publicity is good publicity. Right. Here's the article. Anyway, please visit these guys at MacWorld. They're from North Dakota. They need your support.

So there's a line where Lee writes, "Munster says he finds it odd that Ntractive would target such a small market" (small businesses on Macs). What I really said was "I find my iPod attractive and the competition targets such a small market." You see how things get messed up in these dang phone interviews. In their defense, the Strib cut their staff a while back and they're doing their reporting on the cheap. What can I say except that he did follow it with a statement about how Apple market share is growing. But then again, he also omitted my money quote: '' Microsoft Vista is a dog that don't hunt."

Met with Paul at APS

2008-01-10T17:00:00.000-08:00

Well after Paul's email about the Apple Peripherals Show, I thought I'd go take a look for myself. Yep, it's just like he said, and I told clients as much as Elmer Fud blogged about.

GS Plate Techtonics, Part 2

2008-01-09T19:02:00.001-08:00

So Goldman tried for another volcanic event today. Since you've been reading this blog you all know how dependable their calls are.

Anyway, today they said we're in a recession. Apple stock went up 5%.

Honestly those guys don't know obsidian from pumice.

Starbucks' Extreme Makeover

2008-01-08T14:08:00.000-08:00

It's today's office pool (courtesy of Judy).

What will Howard Schultz, comeback Starbucks CEO, do to "re-ignite the emotional attachment with customers"?

My choices are:

A) No brainer stuff: Shut down underperforming stores (Shhh. We've saturated the market for pricey lattes, but don't tell the shareholders)
B) Low risk: Offer hand waxing, back waxing, pedicure, or other spa "mini-services" with each purchase of two beverages
C) Medium risk: Free windshield wash and tire air pressure check at the drive thru window
D) Big Time Risky: Replace Tall, Grande and Venti with Small, Medium, Large beverage size choices
E) Huge innovation: Offer free internet access instead of T-Mobile restricted

There's also an "other" (recommend your own makeover idea) category. Anyway we don't cover SBUX, so I'm thinking of investing a dollar here. I'd appreciate any Munster Nation ideas.

Gates: See Ya

2008-01-06T18:53:00.000-08:00

Here's what he had for the MS-Faithful tonight:

"The trend here is clear: all media and entertainment will be software-driven. The first digital decade has been fantastically successful."

Bill, Bill, Bill. No matter how good the driver is, every driver needs a great vehicle to drive. And that's why Apple is coming on like gangbusters. They've got the software and the hardware. Maybe it's best you watch this next chapter from the cheap seats. I'm sure Ballmer will do just fine.

Take care, Bill.

The writing is on the wall when

2008-01-06T12:50:00.000-08:00

the owner of Down in the Valley indie record stores (Steve Hyland, Minneapolis) says "My kid's got 1,000 songs in his MP3, and he didn't buy any of them from me."

See here.

10 to 1 he could keep his store going if he transitioned to Apple peripherals and iTunes cards. Even the big boys like JVC know that's the way to survive.

Stay iTuned.

CES=School Science Fair, or Apple Third-Party Show?

2008-01-06T06:16:00.001-08:00

From Paul...

Hey Gene, decided to rent a car a drive to the CES. I took a walk around yesterday, and let me tell you it's bleak Gene. The stuff looks old. Fujitsu has a tablet out that looks like the Pismo! Remember that Powerbook? Here look:

So where does that put the designers.... about seven years behind Apple? Yikes. Actually I think the Pismo still looks better, don't you? But hey at least that's more up to date than Grundig. They've got a "new" shortwave radio out.

There's a bunch of little robots and helicopters all over the place. The whole thing reminds of my grade school science fair. On the plus side, it's starting to become more of a showcase for third party Apple stuff from companies that want to reach folks who might not go to macworld. Here, check this out:

Gates is speaking tonight. I guess it's his last time. They've been trying to paper the hall all day to get him an audience.

Well, that's it Gene. I'll let you know if I spot anything good that isn't somehow related to Apple. Not looking too likely though. Hey maybe they'll just change the name next year to the Apple Peripherals Show (APS).

~Paul

Just when you thought corn was out of season

2008-01-04T06:42:00.000-08:00

Well what do you know! My grocer just got a truckload of sweet corn in, and it's on sale!

You know my mantra with corn sales: Don't load the cart all at once.

Happy shopping.

Doug, Doug, Doug

2008-01-04T06:19:00.000-08:00

Pop Quiz time Doug Kass, based on your oh-so-bearish article.

So, what do the PC companies do? Probably add lower prices to new features. Macs are expensive. A recession is probably coming. "Cool" may be nice, but not when a consumer can't afford it.

Which is tougher: (a) reversing your loss of market share with wannabe products that can't get any cheaper because your margins are already stretched too thin, or (b) going from 5% market share to 10% with the best computers and added-value software in the world?

Did you pay any attention to what was happening in December? For God's sake man, pay attention during the next two weeks. More strikeouts at CES, and then Steve will step to the plate with the bases loaded.

Hastings of Netflix joins the Denial Boyz

2008-01-03T06:50:00.000-08:00

"If (Apple) does what has been reported, they will reach a very big market," Hastings said. "But the addition of Apple to the rental market isn’t causing us to lose any sleep." ~Reed Hastings, Netflix

"The co-CEO of Research In Motion Ltd., which makes the popular line of BlackBerry email devices, said in an interview at RIM's Waterloo headquarters that he's not losing sleep over Apple's efforts to upend the wireless market in much the same way as its wildly popular iPod music devices changed the way people acquire and listen to music." ~Jim Balsillie, RIM

"We've learned and struggled for a few years here figuring out how to make a decent phone,'' he said. "PC guys are not going to just figure this out. They're not going to just walk in.'' ~Ed Holigan, Palm

"We're expecting a good fight but they're coming out with something [iPod Shuffle] that's five generations older. It's our first generation MuVo One product feature, without display, just have a (shuffle feature). We had that — that's a four-year-old product. So I think the whole industry will just laugh at it, because the flash people — it's worse than the cheapest Chinese player. Even the cheap, cheap Chinese brand today has display and has FM. They don't have this kind of thing, and they expect to come out with a fight; I think it's a non-starter to begin with." ~Sim Wong Hoo, Creative

"Screw the nano," said Zander. "What the hell does the nano do? Who listens to 1,000 songs? People are going to want devices that do more than just play music, something that can be seen in many other countries with more advanced mobile phone networks and savvy users," he said. ~Ed Zander, (formerly) Motorola

"There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance," said Ballmer. "It's a $500 subsidized item. They may make a lot of money. But if you actually take a look at the 1.3 billion phones that get sold, I'd prefer to have our software in 60% or 70% or 80% of them, than I would to have 2% or 3%, which is what Apple might get." ~Steve Ballmer, Microsoft

""We're going to be communicating to people that it's stupid to buy an iPod." ~William Gorog, Napster

And of course....when asked what he would do if he were Apple's CEO:

“What would I do? I’d shut it down,” replied Michael Dell, “and give the money back to the shareholders.” ~Michael Dell

CNBC's new year's resolution

2008-01-02T06:45:00.000-08:00

Take a look at the "guests" on CNBC this morning: Najarian, Cramer, Deutsch. Hey, don't they all have shows on..... CNBC? A little too inbred for my tastes. I think they better get back to the markets. Having me on the show soon would be a good start.

Think Fox has 'em a little shook up?

Choices, choices

2008-01-01T18:34:00.000-08:00

Netflix or Blockbuster?

HD DVD or Blu-ray?

Apple. Stay iTuned.

Enderle tries to get us to change our mind

2007-12-31T06:53:00.000-08:00

Enderle has made a last minute attempt to get our n00b deluxe award. Sorry Rob, it was a good try but we're sticking with your mentor Dvorak. But I'll have at look at your article just for grins.

I'm having my doubts about Apple though, as it would seem success is going to their head as they put Think Secret out of business, and I and a lot of others were tricked into believing they personally threaten the guy who writes the Fake Steve Jobs parody

No Rob, you "and a lot of others" were not tricked. You're just stupid.

To make a point, Dan Lyons joked about how Apple's power might be going too far (and yes I fell for the joke).

Yes, you keep mentioning, so I will as well. You're a dunce.

If you search "Lyons and Apple" in Google news, you'll see he got a lot of us thinking about this subject, and perhaps we should.

Someone tell Enderle that "and" is ignored in a Google search. Oh well, I'll follow his lead. A search of "Enderle and stupid" gives over 31,000 results. Here Rob, this is for you:

The "AND" operator is unnecessary -- we include all search terms by default

In addition, as Apple goes into the battle with CES, arguably one of its biggest, it still has to put to bed the Options problem that implicates Steve Jobs himself in an alleged crime. This would seem very ill-advised. In any case, this isn't a good start for it in 2008, but recall 2007 looked like it would be difficult for Apple as well, and it powered through that.

Did he really just do that? Wolverton would be so proud!

I'll be at the show and participating in the 11th annual Build Your Own PC race, and I was practicing last week with my new AMD Spider system. Who knows, I may get lucky.

Dear God. This explains a lot. I'm not kidding about this one.

HTC created the fastest and most credible competitor to the iPhone last year, but it was rushed and I'd expect a much better offering for the second generation.

Enderle loves to play the "second generation" card to show authority. He called for the second generation iPhone to show up in October of 2007. Dolt.

By the end of 2008 I'll bet these folks will have moved one way or the other.

Brilliant. Absolutely brilliant.

and possibly a full refresh of the iMac (long overdue).

Yeah. That aluminum and glass deal from August was nothing.

I think the product of the year should set a good example both inside and outside a firm. Sync does so, and it is my product of the year.

There it is folks, Enderle's pick for product of the year. Well Rob, you probably won't have a lot of competition for that pick. It's all yours pal.

n00b deluxe for 2007

2007-12-30T07:30:00.000-08:00

As we close each year, Team Munster likes to review its research and choose one person to be n00b deluxe for the year. A n00b above all other n00bs. There were plenty to choose from in 2007, as you know if you hold aapl.

Now, it might just be because I'm the boss, but the team agreed with me that Johnny Dvorak should win for writing Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone: Company risks its reputation in competitive business.

Here's a quote:

What Apple risks here is its reputation as a hot company that can do no wrong. If it's smart it will call the iPhone a "reference design" and pass it to some suckers to build with someone else's marketing budget. Then it can wash its hands of any marketplace failures.

It should do that immediately before it's too late. Samsung Electronics Ltd. might be a candidate. Otherwise I'd advise you to cover your eyes. You're not going to like what you'll see.

So congratulations John, you are Team Munster's n00b deluxe for 2007. Your advice is right up there with Michael Dell's, and for that we salute you.

Letterman writes his own solution

2007-12-29T11:03:00.000-08:00

and takes the initiative in modeling the new paradigm for his industry.

Of course I've been mentioning it lately, as Munster Nation is well aware.

Blockbuster Busted

2007-12-28T16:48:00.000-08:00

Of course I've been mentioning it plenty. See the latest reason here.

Walmart just caved. Netflix is next.

The winner already has the hardware in consumer's hands.

Stay iTuned.

OxyMoron

2007-12-27T09:54:00.000-08:00

Viv came bounding into the office.

"Gene, got a sec?"

"Sure Viv, what's up?"

"You see Enderle's blogging yesterday?"

"Enderle's got a blog?"

"Yeah Gene. Apparently Apple is rotting from the inside out. Says people want Steve out. It confirms our retail check at the Apple store!" Viv grins like the Cheshire cat.

"That's nuts. Enderle's pretty thick, but. . . . hey, maybe it's a fake blog."

"Fake? You mean like Fake Steve? Like he's doing a genre crossover?"

"Yeah, like that."

"Hmm. Gene, why would he jump from creative nonfiction to fake blogging? It's too close, like just half a step. No, Gene, I think it's him. I mean the title of the blog is real official and everything. "

"What's it called?"

"Rob Enderle: The Real Truth About Technology and IT"

"Oh my God. Yeah, that's him alright. Never thought you could squeeze an oxymoron into a blog title."

Apple goes after Coach

2007-12-24T09:25:00.000-08:00

So when Coach sat down last year to map our their 2007 holiday strategy, do you think they saw Apple as a competitor? Probably not. But such is the power of the iPod.

"Spending on luxury items is up 10.8 percent, “which isn’t bad at all,” Mr. McNamara said. Purchases of electronics rose a healthy 5.8 percent."

So now even the fashion industry has to figure out how to compete with Apple. And I gotta admit, I have no idea how they can do it. Who's next, the oil companies? I don't think anyone is beyond Apple's reach at this point.

Oz Symbolism for the New Gilded Age

2007-12-23T05:49:00.001-08:00

Dorothy -- Middle class
Wicked Witch of the East -- Eastern Bankers and Wall Street
House that falls on Wicked Witch of East after the tornado (which represents the homeowners revolt) -- Subprime mortgages, CDOs, SIVs
Munchkins -- the underclass and child labor (the Lollipop Guild)
Wicked Witch of the West and her flying monkeys -- Corruption in the lending industry
Tin Man -- Manufacturing economy
Scarecrow -- Agricultural economy
Cowardly lion -- Ben Bernanke, who eventually finds courage to act
Emerald City -- Washington DC
The Wizard -- Name your favorite politician
Silver Slippers (in the book they weren't ruby) -- Monetary policy
Toto -- Apple's new ultralight laptop (digital communication), a small bundle that's able to save the day

In the end the wizard can't help Dorothy. Civilization is saved by the magic of the silver slippers, and the help of her friends -- the tin man, scarecrow, lion, and Toto.

Subprime hasn't Eighty-Sixed Wall Street Bonuses

2007-12-22T13:34:00.000-08:00

Goldman manages to eke out a $68 million bonus for the CEO. Others are mixed, but are averaging a 14% increase over last year.

Happy holidays.

Piper Jaffray is Serious About Global Warming

2007-12-21T13:11:00.000-08:00

You all think I'm just kidding around about this stuff, but seriously, we have an environmental investments section. See Lois Quam, Piper Jaffray Director (that's her in the photo talking to Will Steger about glacial retreat in Norway).

The Strong Get Stronger

2007-12-19T07:54:00.000-08:00

Erin called me this morning, wanted me to make an appearance. No problem, I'm always ready to go (note the rockin' tie, btw).

Apple, Google... the strong get stronger.

2008 is the year of the digital consumer.... and that means Apple.

Man, I'm getting good at this stuff.

Back to work.

Big Surprise (NOT): Frustrated Android Developers

2007-12-19T07:14:00.000-08:00

As I predicted over a month ago, Android is being developed using Panic Mode Development Methodology (PMDM), AKA a "contest". Oh, and I also mentioned (and Jobs told Schmidt), that the Seattle software development boys and girls, hoping to find respite from Vista troubleshooting, would jump on the Android wagon. Yep. See a Macbeth tragedy here.

Combo Ultra Light/Wood Chipper Coming From Apple

2007-12-18T03:33:00.000-08:00

I didn't mention it in my press release today, but yeah, it's gonna turn Kindle into Kindling.

How do I know this? Here at Piper we put our hands on many new consumer electronic products.

So Vivian ran back from receiving today with the Amazon Kindle. She was panting, and so excited her hands were shaking, but she managed to rip off the packaging.

Soon as she had a book loaded, she flicked her finger down the screen to page down. She tried the pinch maneuver to make the font size bigger. "It doesn't work!" she cried as she passed the machine to Andrew.

And wouldn't you know, Andrew tried the same procedure to move to the next page -- touching the screen, he dragged his finger downward. "She's right, this thing is defective," he lamented.

Yes Munster Nation, multitouch is ubiquitous and intuitive, as a great user interface should be. And it's has been marketed so well it has become the defacto standard!

At MacWorld we'll see the real goods.

Z(ucker) is zuckered again: Dave Letterman takes a page from the Jobs playbook and negotiates independently with WGA

2007-12-16T10:07:00.001-08:00

The Writer's Guild is learning how to cut out the network power brokers.

Letterman can end run the networks because he owns his show. "The CBS host is in a better position to make an individual deal with the WGA than late-night hosts Jay Leno, Conan O'Brien and Jimmy Kimmel, whose programs are owned by their networks."

Anyway, ya' think there's anyone else the WGA could iNegotiate with, like somebody with lots of experience in the entertainment biz -- from places like iPixar and iDisney and the largest online music and movie distribution outlet perhaps?

The iParadigm shifts. Stay iTuned.

Team Munster Retail Checks

2007-12-15T17:10:00.000-08:00

Last night Viv and I worked the action up at the Rosedale Apple store. Viv remembered her clicker but I forgot mine, so I used my finger counting (thanks to Sister Edna I have that valuable skill) as shoppers meandered through the 25 foot zone surrounding the store entrance.

Rosedale is a small store, about 2,000 square feet. People were entering the store at the rate of 260 per hour, consistent with our previous checks. Nearly 25 percent of mall goers who entered the "zone" were sucked into the store. Many were women, but there was still the occasional male veering toward the entrance only to be pulled away by the woman at his side. Viv calls those "mixed marriages". There were 50-60 shoppers inside the store at all times throughout our check period.

Viv went in to purchase an iPod. She saw a Macbook Pro, 3 iPods, and assorted software and accessories sold during the five minutes she stood in the checkout line.
But Apple needs to do something about the stroller problem -- not enough room to push a stroller into that store. Several times a baby pusher would stop outside the entrance and look wistfully into the store. At times these "stroller handicapped" shoppers blocked the entrance (tandem strollers were the worst -- when did they start making them to compete with Hummers on size?), making it difficult for other shoppers to enter or exit.

But overall, it's looking great for earnings.

London-by-the-Sea the result of ice melt

2007-12-13T16:17:00.001-08:00

Attention London Financial Centre:

Previously you had until 2099 to move your assets to Minneapolis.

Now it appears you have until 2012: "This week, after reviewing his own new data, NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: 'At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.'"

And check out this recent report.

Ring me mates. I'm here to assist.

Team Munster. Easing you onto higher ground.

Resistance is futile: Cayman Islands will be destroyed by Artic ice melt

2007-12-13T16:13:00.000-08:00

Attention Offshore Hedge Fund Management and their Wealthy Clients:

Previously you had until 2099 to move your assets to Minneapolis.

Now it appears you have until 2012: "This week, after reviewing his own new data, NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: 'At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.'"

And our channel checks indicate that the next ice report will go further over the top, so to speak.

Trust me, this will be worse than the hurricane risks.

Remember, you have three short years before catastrophe, so give me a call and we'll get the ball rolling.

Team Munster. We can ease your move to higher ground.

Blockbuster, what was that?

2007-12-11T17:22:00.000-08:00

I think it was the sound of MovieBeam crashing and burning. Hey but don't worry, I'm sure it will be different for you guys.

So good luck with that Movielink albatross. Hey Keyes, what movie was it that you showed that AP reporter on your phone when you were bragging on Movielink? Oh that's right.... Crash!

More Z curse stuff

2007-12-11T16:01:00.000-08:00

Remember this?

"We know that Apple has destroyed the music business - in terms of pricing -- and if we don't take control, they'll do the same thing on the video side," Zucker maintained.

Hey Jeff, how's that "take control" thing working for ya?

NBC refunds advertisers as ratings plunge

Apple Shuts Down CompUSA

2007-12-10T15:39:00.000-08:00

Buh-freakin-bye-bye to CompUSA, and it's all Apple's fault. How so?

Think about it.

A big box store for PCs from Dell competitors. How much of a shift away from PCs would it take to have an impact? Nada mucho, amigo.

Hey ask Motorola if you don't think lil' ol' Apple has an impact on companies that run on razr-thin margins. And like I said.... watch out Blockbuster.... your day of reckoning is coming too.

One way to increase your blog traffic

2007-12-09T16:00:00.000-08:00

Steve is upping his traffic by flame baiting. Poor schmuck. Probably ticked that I'm siphoning off his fan base. After all, my advice is useful and profitable.

Team Munster is above Dvorakian dirty tricks. If you don't know what I'm talking about see this youtube video. Dvorak isn't smart enough to understand the flame baiter boomerang effect: The targeted population catches on and starts using the tactic themselves.

Yes, Minnesota has conceal and carry too. But here in Munster country we're smart enough to not provoke the gun lobby. We build our reputation the old-fashioned way: we earn it.

Elmer, Elmer, Elmer

2007-12-08T19:31:00.000-08:00

"Does Rupert Murdoch’s Times know something we don’t? Is Apple PR paving the way for Steve Jobs’ succession?

No, no, no and no. If you read the Times story closely you will see that it is what journalists call a write-around — a profile written without the cooperation of the main subject or his handlers."

Yup... it's total crap, and Philip Elmer-Dewitt wanted to play Captain Obvious on it and get some eyeballs. So he titles his article:

"Will Jonathan Ive replace Apple’s Steve Jobs?"

Pretty provocative title, doncha think? Now why would he do that?

"With nothing new to say and no access to Ive,

why run the story at all?"

My thoughts exactly.

Now What?

2007-12-07T20:01:00.000-08:00

Viv's convinced that the PC guy is trying to nudge her out of her two-book contract. And she wants to know what kind of hack editor names a series "Now What?"
I told her I agreed -- Zuned: Another Scary Microsoft Hardware Blunder and Googled: A Tale of gPhones and gLust at the gSpot exude class.

But in any case I'm glad it's the weekend.

What can I say?

2007-12-07T14:06:00.000-08:00

When the corn goes on sale, you buy the corn.

No need to thank me, it's why I'm here. But I must apologize to Shawn: Looks like I'm missing the over-200 close by a couple of weeks.

Upgrade soon? Yeah, watch for me on CNBC.

Scott Moritz

2007-12-07T04:08:00.001-08:00

n00b extraordinaire.

That is all.

Jimmy G takes the bait

2007-12-06T14:16:00.000-08:00

From Paul:

Dear Gene,

For the last few days I've been communicating with Jim Goldman. I'll admit I've been a little bored, so I created a gmail address that I could use to see if he would nibble. Boy did he ever.

So anyway... that "story" of his today... well that's all me. I'm the "source with good connections." But as you can see Gene I didn't give him anything that Munster Nation didn't already know. No harm done.

So if we ever need him in the future... well he'll pretty much repeat whatever I tell him to. Hope you don't mind boss.

Paul

Neff shows me some respect

2007-12-06T14:09:00.000-08:00

Bear Stearns raised their target today (from $243 to $249), carefully keeping it below my $250. The analyst club carefully bows to my superiority. Anyway, he's finally getting the story on accelerating Mac sales.

Did you notice that today's BS note was "team authored" (Neff, Hand, Chung). You know, that's smart. You have to give the underlings credit somewhere when the raises and bonuses at Bear Stearns are gonna be sub prime. It's too bad that team doesn't blog... I like 'em.

Kindle to become kindling

2007-12-05T17:55:00.000-08:00

Paul sent me an update today:

Dear Gene,

Not much news out here lately, except for a little scoop on the ultra light. One of the things it's going to do really well is the whole "e book" thing. The guys out here are laughing their asses off about the Kindle. You can imagine what Apple's multi-touch is going to look like for e books... flipping pages, accelerometer, resolution independence and all that. Oh yeah... and color, duh.

So they're calling Bezo's thing Kindling out here... bonfires to commence after Macworld.

Gotta run boss. Dinner with Woz.

We need to raise Ben Stein's retainer fee

2007-12-04T18:07:00.000-08:00

Seriously. Nice job on the Goldman Sachs smack down Ben. Dodd's a heavy hitter.

Ben, I'm looking forward to those Swedish cookies at the potluck. Vivian says she's making her classic Stir Fry Tater Tot Hot Dish -- big hit at last year's party. You're gonna love it.

Shaw, I'm not gonna lie: you disappoint me

2007-12-04T16:44:00.000-08:00

(Note: Originally posted in October, but since Shaw has seemingly taken my words to heart I thought I'd repost.)

Though he's been trying to get better, every now and then Shaw Wu comes up with something that makes you say.... HUH?

So here's the latest:

But for December, the Street’s view is too high at $8.6 billion and $1.38; Wu thinks it’s more like $8.1 billion and $1.25. “For the December quarter, we believe AAPL will most likely continue its tradition of conservative guidance to help reign in unrealistic expectations,” writes Wu.

Shaw, are you the only one still playing the cat and mouse game with Papa Peter? The rest of us are going it alone. Find me the last time Apple didn't beat the Street after issuing the lowballed guidance.

So you think Apple's gonna say $1.25...big deal. The point is, what do you think they're really going to make?

Hint: It's going to be higher than the $1.38 Shaw. So how is $1.38 "unrealistic?" You following this?

And dude...$185? C'mon.

Gonna have to consider re-issuing n00b status on you pal. You're slipping.

I'm winning Ben Stein's money

2007-12-03T15:56:00.000-08:00

He's signed on to efforts to make Minneapolis the financial hub of the universe. Ben was an easy convert -- turns out he's been reading my stuff for years and making money on AAPL. So anyway, now he's paying the Piper, so to speak, and his ties rate. So we're happy to have him on board.

Thanks Ben. Oh yeah, we've got you down to bring a dessert tray for the office holiday potluck.

Photo Caption Contest

2007-12-02T18:46:00.001-08:00

Mirror mirror on the wall......

(post your entry in the comments)

P.S. Sorry about the Starbucks straw, I shoulda cropped that out

Fadell is winning

2007-12-01T16:55:00.000-08:00

Dear Gene:

This afternoon I was hanging out at the bar when in walks a group of guys from Apple including Tony Fadell. Some of the guys were slapping him on the back and congratulating him. One of the fellas saw me and shouted "hey Mayor Paul join us for a drink!"

Well boss, to make a long story short, seems that one of the things that the Apple guys do for fun is submit ridiculous patents, and then see who can get the most rumor mileage out of it. I guess Tony is currently in the lead with this gem:

One of the guys asked me what I thought it was and I said "I dunno a pocket frisbee?" Nope. Turns out it's an adapter for a mini CD that will allow it to go into a normal slot loading drive. "Well, who the hell uses little CDs?" I asked. "And wouldn't the cost of making that little thing pretty much negate any cost savings anyway?"

"Oooh!" said Fadell. "But what if you made the adapter itself break down into smaller pieces!"

"Uh, it would still be easier and cheaper to go with regular discs?" I said.

"Exactly! Doesn't make a lick of sense does it? But hey I submitted that patent over a year ago, and it's still got legs! It's a couple pieces of plastic for god's sake! Too damn funny. Hey not to mention no one will be using opticals in a few years anyway. That was my little ironic twist you see."

"Oh, well congratulations. That's quite a clever hoax" I said.

"Thanks Paul. Now hey get me caught up on how you opened a can-o-whoopass on Wolverton."

Googling Redefined

2007-12-01T15:31:00.001-08:00

So Vivian limped through her latest writer's block episode and continues work on her Business-Erotica book, now renamed Googled: A Tale of gPhones and gLust at the gSpot .

New intel from Paul sparked Viv's latest theory about why they'd be using a contest to lure outside Android developers. He says the rumor runs that their software developers lack focus --- are prone to indiscriminately googling each other -- so anyway, it was too risky to have a critical, groundbreaking system like Android developed inhouse. Not only does this behavior create a revolving door, but heck, one strategically placed STD and the enemy could take out the entire place for months, maybe years.

On the bright side, Paul gripes that Apple runs a Sunday school outfit.

That's all good news for Munster Nation. My $250 target is sustainable.

Zander: Victim Of The Z Curse?

2007-11-30T20:00:00.000-08:00

Viv corners me at the water cooler.

"Gene, Zander's out at Motorola. Totally expected, you know, the Z curse."

"Hey Viv. Yeah, I guess that Android thing isn't working out for them."

"Trust me, it's the Z affliction. The only character it boosted was Zorro, and that was fiction. Reality is totally the opposite."

"Uh, no kidding?"

She plunges her herbal tea bag into hot water (Viv loves "the version 2.0" water cooler here at Piper). "Gene I've done my research on this. Didn't you get the email I sent?"

"Oh. Yeah. You bet."

She rolls her eyes and sighs. "They're all clueless Gene. Z's had to sit in the back of the class. Sad, really. Look at that Zucker guy over at NBC Universal."

"You've got something there . . . "

"And this Men's Warehouse CEO -- Zimmer. Did you see their latest quarterly report Gene?"

Strange coincidence . . . I'm eyeing the men's warehouse/refuge door over her left shoulder. I nod. "Yeah, the retail section report mentioned it."

"And then there's that Zuckerberg kid at Facebook. He's still on training wheels. He's a disaster just waiting to happen!"

The back of my neck feels prickly. Bad sign. "Viv, excuse me, I think I have an appointment in the boy's room."

"Don't believe me Gene? Why do you think ex-CEO John Zeglis had to leave AT&T Wireless? Huh? That's right, even Jobs believes in the curse of the Z! There couldn't be a deal until the Z guy left."

"Well now, that's something Viv."

"Sure Gene, it's that karma thing with Jobs. You're lucky he tolerates you."

"Right Viv."

P.S. Hellooooo Moto

Munster Nation Always Gets The Early Nod

2007-11-30T15:11:00.000-08:00

For example, tipping you off about Paul's inside scoop.

Now read my prediction on the new ultra portables. Sound familiar? You know I have to tell the masses sooner or later, but blog readers will continue to get the early nod.

Oh, and about the part on the risks of closed systems, where I say: "However, we believe customers also appreciate and need simplicity. Apple and AT&T's closed system enables a user to buy the phone activate and load it with media in a few easy steps, which is made possible by the closed nature of the iPhone ecosystem."

Activate and load in a few easy steps . . . kind of reminds one of the closed ecosystem that's made the iPod wildly successful ( iPod + iTunes vertical integration), doesn't it?

Michael Dell's World

2007-11-30T04:09:00.000-08:00

It's all about "customer-driven innovation" at Dell. "We gather requirements directly through tens of thousands of customer interactions daily, organized events, and customer panels."

OK Dell, listening to the customer will get you the small product enhancements, the incremental stuff. But the leaps occur when you aren't listening to the customer.

Jobs knows this well. Apple blocks out the 1,000 not so important things and gives the customer something they need but didn't even know they needed.

And that's one of the big cultural differences between Dell and Apple.

3G iPhone.... and... so?

2007-11-29T18:09:00.000-08:00

So AT&T says the 3G iPhone is coming next year... which Steve already said... but more importantly, about which Munster Nation recently received confirmation along with the ten-year roadmap.

Questions?

Doug Kass

2007-11-29T16:36:00.000-08:00

n00b deluxe.

That is all.

What would Mac-Gyver do?

2007-11-29T09:23:00.000-08:00

Even though he grew up on the wrong side of the river, I've been a loyal fan of St. Paulie boy Richard Dean Anderson for, like, forever. Anderson played secret agent Angus MacGyver on a popular TV series, which featured his use of brains -- not brute force or violence -- to extricate himself from danger. In a recent survey Americans were asked which fictional hero they'd like to have at their side during an emergency, and MacGyver was the top choice (27%), followed by Indiana Jones (16%). Anyway, mathematics and scientific knowledge are the way we roll here at Piper too. Twenty-five feet of dental floss, a stopwatch, and the basic laws of physics can save any day.

Tuesdays Little Ironies

2007-11-27T18:29:00.001-08:00

Google announced a new renewable energy R&D initiative . They'll be spending tens of millions in 2008 in a dedicated effort to reduce coal use in electricity generation. Meanwhile, their effort to develop their mobile OS, called Android, is a contest.

Vice President Cheney got lucky, but attempts to resuscitate Zune failed due to lack of battery power to the defibrillator paddles.

And the growth of Minneapolis as the world's financial center got rerouted today because Abu Dhabi decided to prop up Citigroup. But it's a minor diversion. We'll get those guys here eventually because we can match them on extreme temperature conditions. And we have the edge. You can always dress warmer, but you can only undress to a certain point and still go out in public.

Trying to find a place for Paul

2007-11-27T17:57:00.000-08:00

Think the real estate market is done selling down? That's what Paul thinks, so he figures we can buy a place for him to stay for a few more months and then flip it. So he sends me this pic. It's a nice little place in Cuptertino where he can stay close to the action.

Just over a thousand square feet. Price? Try just over a million. Not kidding, see for yourself.

I don't think so Paul.

Physical Forces Favor Apple Store, But It's Not Gravity

2007-11-26T08:10:00.000-08:00

Viv made me say "gravitational pull" even though I wanted to tell the truth (and thank goodness for this blog, where I don't have to be politically correct) about the massive centrifugal force being exerted by other stores in those malls.

What we really observed: Shoppers were actively being thrown away from other establishments (and the outward force was strongest at stores selling PCs with Vista). Judy said it was like the force that tosses bodies in a car against the outside door as it swerves around a corner, except in this case they were being tossed into the Apple stores.

Internally we're calling it the "Vista whirl and puke", because it mimics forces encountered on popular carnival rides.

No kidding, Andrew claims he saw actual physical symptoms -- bruises, weak knees, nausea, and indigestion, but relief was immediate when the shopper entered an Apple store.

Today's Puzzler

2007-11-24T18:39:00.000-08:00

Another nice piece of investigative journalism from the high school AV class . . .

Paul meets with Papa Peter

2007-11-23T12:22:00.000-08:00

So ever since the fight with Troy and Paul's unofficial designation as honorary Mayor of Cupertino, Team Munster agreed to leave him out west for the time being. He's holed up in one of those executive hotels where you pay by the week. For the info we've been getting, it's easily worth it.

So yesterday Paul is out at one of Cupertino's local drinking establishments for Thanksgiving since he's got no family out that way. Well, who do you suppose walks in but Oppenheimer! Paul writes:

Gene, this is almost too good to be true and I hope you're sitting down. Definitely do NOT read this email on your iPhone while driving.

Peter sees me and sits down to congratulate me on the whole "kicking Troy's ass" thing and orders a round of martinis for us. Well, several rounds later I start asking him about the deferred revenue and the whole growth story and he tells me that he and Steve have been intentionally holding back Apple's growth.

Gene, I hope you're still reading this, cause you read it right. Basically boss, both the iPhone and Leopard could have been out as much as a year sooner than they were. That's not saying they were ready production-wise mind you. What I'm saying is that Steve has laid out a ten year plan for Apple and has the entire thing orchestrated for steady, controlled growth. It's mind boggling to hear Peter talk about it Gene...well and a little hard to follow cause he was pretty plastered.

Basically it boils down to this: they were worried that if they allowed the innovation folks to run at their own pace, the growth story would be over too soon. So everything is being done in a very exacting way, from new product releases to store openings to new iPhone agreements. Everything Gene, for the next decade. It's all figured out already.

Somewhere around the fourth or fifth round he said to me, "Paul, if you think the iPhone is mind-blowing, imagine a half dozen products that make the iPhone look like Pong. Remember Pong? That's what is going on here Paul. But if we release everything too fast, people will hardly know what to do with it all. So we're going nice and easy so everyone can grasp where we are going, and we can keep growing the earnings.... and keep the story moving."

I said to him "so you mean something like the iPhone with 3G is already figured out?" He says "Paul, what the hell do you think Steve took out of his pocket at Macworld?!?!?! What do you think he's been using all these months? And that's just one example. If we let this thing go at the pace our engineers are on, consumers would probably just freak out and stop buying altogether. Customers are already holding back their purchases because they think the next version of whatever is just around the corner. They have no idea, Paul. We've got so much stuff in the wings. And we've got to keep such a tight lid on everything. This stuff could drive a man to drinking."

That's where I lost him boss. Got a pretty good bump on his head when he passed out too. Gene, I think we're going to need to consider finding me a condo out here.

Yours truly, Mayor Paul

My Thanksgiving

2007-11-23T11:36:00.000-08:00

With some trepidation I cross the border to St. Paul. There's the usual suspects, and hugs all around.

Aunt June spies me through the crowd and saunters over. "Hiya Gene. I brought your favorite. Seven-layer salad!"

"Jeez, thanks June. Did you put it in that deep bowl, so I can only get the top three layers?"

She laughs. "Heyah Gene, you bet. Just like you like it! How's life? How's work going at that Goldman Jaffray place?"

I clear my throat. "It's Piper Jaffray. I'm a senior analyst now. I've been there twelve years."

Now Uncle Ed edges over. "You still doing that financial stuff?"

"Yep." I nod. Suddenly I need Fran's wine. Wait. I don't drink. Dang.

"Gene, you ever watch that Mad Money show? How come you don't have your own show like that Cramer guy? Is he great -- or what?"

Argh. "Yeah. We worship the guy over at Piper."

They frown in unison. That's what happens to people who've been married 40 years, I mean, it's almost scary. Anyway, Ed tries to slap me on the back, but he misses and hits my shoulder instead. "Gene, I'm just kidding, you know that. Heyah, I saw the skunk about you in Pioneer Press. The Apple thing. Don't they make computers? Boy you're on thin ice there Gene. That stock is spendy."

"It's going to $250."

June and Ed laugh. "Yah. Yah. You're a good boy Gene . . ."

But later I bring out the iPod Touch. It's good. Often I forget that most of the world hasn't seen this technology yet, and the crowd oohs and ahs as I show them cover flow, photos, and a couple videos. They are amazed at how thin it is, and then they are wowed by the touch screen. They all want to play with it. And it totally trumps Althea's show and tell, which is her new heated foot massage machine. By the end of the demo I've sold at least four Apple products. Poor Althea has to concede defeat.

Hope you all had a productive holiday like mine . . . .